Monday, June 2, 2008


The last time a political leader rushed this county into something, we ended up in Iraq. But last week Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Howard Dean let it be known that they want the uncommitted super delegates to declare within 48 hours of the last primary on Tuesday.

In an election this close where one candidate is going to finish the popular vote winner and the other with a delegate lead of less than 5% out of 4000 delegates, (and a lead that is to say the least, tainted both by the decisions regarding Florida and Michigan and the fact that the Democrats' apportionment system awards almost as many delegates to a candidate who gets crushed as it does to the landslide winner).trying to force super delegates to make up their minds before they actually have to when there is so much to consider makes no sense.

Its an exercise in incompetent leadership which is what you would expect from someone with a lower job approval rating than George Bush which is exactly what Pelosi and Reid have. As for Dean, does the Democratic Party really want listen to what is best for winning a Presidential election from Mr. Yee Hah himself?

Pelosi needs to be told to keep her nose out of it. Pelosi and Reid have achieved what most people would have thought impossible -- they have led the Democratically controlled congress to a lower job approval rating than George W. Bush. If super delegates are to exercise any judgment at all before the week is out it should be to ignore them.

Nancy Pelosi and Reid have demonstrated that they have the political instincts of a couple of drunken sailors on shore leave on Bali on a Saturday night.

Right now all of the metrics for the fall election ( which if Obama gets the nomination is going to be renamed the gall election) favor Clinton by a mile. She performs better than Obama against McCain not only in electoral votes by a substantial margin on the RCP electoral vote map but because she creates more toss up states than he does,with many of the toss ups in McCain's column against Obama, (30 for Clinton 6 for Obama) Obama's totals aren't going to change much and give the Democrats a better chance at winning states that went Republican in 2004 than he does.

With an electoral vote lead of 38 it wouldn't take much of a swing to give McCain the election. And these maps are NOT taking into consideration the reality that if Obama were to get the nomination, 95% of Clinton voters are not going to support him or vote for him. That would change the RCP electoral map substantially in favor of McCain.

Clinton with a 61 vote lead in the Electoral College is more likely to add to that lead because most of the toss up states in a Clinton McCain match up are states that go Republican against Obama. And in the important state that went Republican in 2004 that the Democrats need in November( W.Va, Kentucky, Ohio, Florida) all are in the Republican camp vs Obama but become toss ups with Clinton.

In the match ups the news is even better for Clinton and worse for Obama.On their map Clinton is leading McCain 327-194 with 17 toss ups with Clinton winning Ohio,, Kentucky, and Florida. The Obama map shows a close race with Obama ahead only 276-238 with 24 toss ups but losing Florida, Ky, and W.Va and barely winning Ohio. And again this map is not factoring in the certainty that Clinton voters will desert the Democratic Party if Obama is the nominee.

There is so much for super delegates to think about that for Pelosi, Reid and Dean to be pressuring anyone to make a decision after the last primary because they are afraid of "damage" being done to the Democrats chances in the fall shows that these are people more worried about not losing than winning. It also shows they are driven by fear and weakness which Pelosi and Reid have shown for two years, getting bamboozled by the Republicans.

The last thing super delegates or anyone in the Democratic party needs to do now at a crucial time is listen to Nancy Pelosi. About anything. A job approval rating lower than George w. Bush qualifies you to stop talking and nothing else.

Obama is finishing out the primary season in a whimper and momentum seems to be on Clinton's side. The metrics for Clinton keep getting better including polls which show her leading now in the Democratic preference for the nomination. This in spite of all of Obama's dog and pony shows trying to act like its over and that he is the winner.

And every day there is something else coming out about Obama that even more assuredly guarantees his defeat, the latest being Obama's recent decision to leave his church over another pastor problem. Dont forget, this is the church that Obama said when the Wright story first broke, was "not particularly controversial". It's getting pretty crowded now under Obama's bus.

More recently is the buzz about a video showing Michelle Obama and Louis Farrakhan together on a panel at Obama's non controversial Trinity Church, with Michelle Obama doing a rant about "whitey".

In other words there is a lot to think about. And a lot that can happen. Super delegates need to digest and deliberate. Two months is a long time in politics and once a nominee is picked there is no going back.

There is more than two months before the convention. Pelosi,Reid and Dean need to be ignored and all their vacuous chicken little reasons for trying to force a decision brushed aside.

If super delegates aren't going to ignore political leaders with a lower job approval rating than Bush, and rush into something when it isn't necessary, then they shouldn't be surprised that if they make the wrong decision, when the convention opens in August, the Democratic Party is going to look like Baghdad.


Marross said...

Right on,Tom! It is unbelieveable to me that so many Democratic politicians are so stupid that they are willing to back Obama when he has a good chance of losing (in an election that was suppose to be ours for the picking). Haven't they learned anything after Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry?? We have had only three Democratic presidents in the past 40 years and they were all Southern with "regular guy" personas-approachable and non-elitist. Hillary has proven her ability to win over the South and yet the Democrats would rather going down fighting for a phoney, arrogant dilettante. This may be the end of the Democratic Party-I know it is the end of my 40 year relationship with these losers!

Anonymous said...

“….pressuring anyone to make a decision after the last primary because they are afraid of "damage" being done to the Democrats chances in the fall shows that these are people more worried about not losing than winning. It also shows they are driven by fear and weakness which Pelosi and Reid have shown for two years, getting bamboozled by the Republicans…..”

EXACTLY Tom. This is how Democrats have behaved and governed when they were in the minority (and caused me to change my voter registration from ‘D’ to ‘I’ in July of 2006 after 40 years being a registered D and after sending both Pelosi and Dean a six page letter outlining my disgust) and now while they are in the majority. Such ‘profiles in courage.’ They are more concerned about image than in standing up for what is right and best for America.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post Tom! So very true and couldn't have made the points better or more clearly.

Hillary or McCain 2008

Anonymous said...

Pelosi fails to see the irony in her claim that she was deceived into voting to authorize military action in Iraq by the very man she regularly accuses of having less intelligence than a garden slug.

Pelosi stated in an interview in the SF Chronicle that she believes her greatest accomplishment as Speaker has been keeping bills from reaching the floor for debate. That is some major accomplishment, keep getting paid for avoiding the real work you were hired by the voters to do.

Anonymous said...

While, I agree in part with what has been said, I have to say, that it would be remiss to conclude that Hillary can win in Nov. Nov is a LONG time away. When Bill Clinton won the nomination in 1992, he was in third place, and then he throughly trounced George bush by the time in Nov. Things can change. Finally, while Hillary can win in appalachia, which is true, it is also true, that Obama can win in the west, which is also critical. The key thing to note, is that Hillary can win in Nov, however, Obama has two options. Win Enormously or Lose Enormously. Either way, the Democrats are taking this kind of chance. We'll have to see what happens.

adamonis said...

You are a true genius!

Arturo Ui said...

"More recently is the buzz about a video showing Michelle Obama and Louis Farrakhan together on a panel at Obama's non controversial Trinity Church, with Michelle Obama doing a rant about "whitey"."

It is the height of irresponsibility to make this claim, when no video has surfaced, and the only people claiming one exists are right-wing dirty trickster Roger Stone (founder of C.U.N.T.), and certified nutjob and Holocaust revisionist Larry Johnson. You could at least use the phrase "purported video", or "alleged video", if you MUST grovel in the mud on this one. How many people are going to read your post and just assume the video exists, and tell others the same? Oh, wait, that's your whole point isn't it.

Why don't you at least stick to corroborated facts, rather than this fairy tale innuendo of the most despicable kind?

John Norris said...

Right on! Where does Pelosi get the audacity...

Anonymous said...

Luckily the opinion of cyber warriors like you mean next to nothing.

Marc Rubin said...

"You could at least use the phrase "purported video", or "alleged video","

I dont use the term often because its a cliche, but "buzz" means "purported".

But I assume from your remarks that if such a video does exist you will, like most rational people, be appalled by it.

mdr said...

"Luckily the opinion of cyber warriors like you mean next to nothing."

But the opinions of 17 million people do so keep those carrots in your ears.

Kim said...

It is rather interesting that the drivers of the bus are telling the passengers to drive faster.

Anonymous said...

Name one office Hillary has received that was not due to her husband. Wal Mard Board? Rose Law Partner?Senator? Everything she has gotten was due to her name recognition as First Lady (in AR or US). Nothing dshe personaaly has done. Now--she was the leader in this race. It was a foregone conclusion she had the nomination. Her people believed it, also. They had all the money and all the free time of the ex-Prez and his contacts. This is the first large job as executive that Hillary ever had. She ran it into the ground and into bankruptcy and second place! Oh yes--she had the popular vote---if you count FL where Obama with very little name recognition at the time wasn't allowed to campaign and MI where he took his name off the ballot (as well as Edwards) and did not campaign so he got zero votes--oh and don't count the states with caucauses since we don't know the true votes. Oh yeah--didn't Hillary say MI and FL don't mean anything?
Is this how she would run the country---into the ground?
Why would women want a person to represent their gender who got to her position because she married into it instead of earning her way? I wouldn't be proud of that. I'd rather have someone who had work her own way into the office.
Now I wonder who Hillary will say was the cause of her losing? I guess it isn't the right wing conspiracy---she said they caused Monica to lie. Let's see---oh yes--she lost because of the press and because she was a woman---the only reason she was ever a senator to begin with. Does anyone really believe she would have been a US Senator (much less stealing the chair in NY) if she hadn't been married to Bill? The only reason she is still in the race is she wants to Burn the Democratic chances this go round so she only has to wait 4 years instead of 8 to try again. This is all about the Clintons---not the country.

Kinky Ogremann said...

First off - you cannot compare Bill Clinton's being third at this time in the polls in 1992 to this contest. This has been the most drawn out primary ever in history with candidates hotly competing in all 50 states for 15 months, incredible media coverage, and tremendous public attention to politics (as well as greater access to info and news because of the internet and cable news network's 24/7 coverage). Obama has reached his height and is now entering the phase of utter collapse - there is no way he can recover, especially once the GOP is able to pin Black Liberation Theology (Wright) and Nation of Islam (Farrakhan) on him, as well as Communism charges (Ayers) - as well as explain in lurid scary details what those theologies mean and violently believe (if you don't know about it - it's truly worth looking into if you still support Obama - it will knock your socks off). People will be RUNNING to the polls in Nov to vote AGAINST Obama when those pearls come out and is played on national broadcasting, commercials, as well as via emails/pamphlets by the 527's.

Second - Hillary did not come into office solely because of her husband. That is a sexist statement to make. She became a senator based on her own accomplishments in public life - such as reforming the school system in Arkansas to move it from last place in the country to a proud system now, attempting health care reform, being a close political adviser to a Governor and President on both domestic and foreign issues, representing our country amazingly abroad in over 80 countries, and an incredible campaigner who helped Bill win in Arkansas and in the country. Anyone who studied Bill Clinton's career knows that he would never have been where he is without Hillary. She was directly involved in all his campaign bids and governing decisions. Bill admitted to this way before Hillary ever even ran for Senate. She did not have a traditional first lady role, if anything, she was more of an Eleanor Roosevelt or Mrs. Wilson. Except unlike them, governmental leadership positions are actually truly available to women now. In the Senate, she extended her hand to Republicans to get real legislation done. From S-CHIP to provide middle-class families' children with health insurance to working aggressively for veteran's benefits as well as 9/11 workers who were neglected by Bush. She championed the farmer's plight in NY- and thus won their overwhelming support in her reelection bid. She has built on her foreign policy experience with many years now in the Senate Armed Services Committee.

She is a champion of ALL Americans and has a proven track record of getting things done. She relates to middle class America because she and Bill came from those very roots. And she is the only one who can fix this country after the mess the GOP has done. Hillary is our only option for America's future.

Anonymous said...

For starters -
Black Liberation Theology can best be characterized by three core beliefs that define the religion:

1) All sins and evils in the Black community is a result of white racism
(starting right after Adam and Eve and the first sin - everything after that, is because of the ills the white man has brought on blacks everywhere).

2) A twisted belief in indoctrinating the belief of “perpetual victimization” among Blacks, so much to the point of ignoring most, if not all Black progress to push forward this belief (ie. don’t talk about/ignore Civil Rights, many Black successful business and political leaders, wealthy Black individuals, etc).

3) Lastly, a belief in a Marxist theology of the redistribution of wealth in many forms. This last one is a bit fudgy as it can go from benign requests for some Slave Reparations all the way to a dramatic demand for a shift to Communism and overthrow of the current government. (If this last one is true, that really help explains the Nation of Islam, William Ayers, Farrakhan, Wright, Rezko and Obama connection).

And you think America will just let this slide? Don't think so - just watch Fox News - the number one cable news network to get an idea of the GOP attacks coming. It will be brutal.