Wednesday, June 4, 2008

A NIGHT TO REMEMBER OR A DOG AND PONY SHOW?


Last night Barack Obama, CNN, Tim Russert and the rest of the media proclaimed Obama the Democratic nominee for President. For the 4th time in the last two weeks. What else is new?


It obviously didn't occur to them that according to the rules (remember "the rules"?) that can't happen and wont until the Democratic National Convention nominates someone.Obama has tried to proclaim himself the nominee before with the media's help. And each time they tried to proclaim it, there was nothing real about it. Last night was no exception. It was just another in a long line of media and Obama dog and pony shows for all the reality last night had.

Either intentionally or out of sheer stupidity ( and its probably a combination of both) the media refuses to acknowledge that none of the super delegates proclamations of support count for anything until they are actually cast in August. And all can change their minds as many times as they want between now and then. Meaning that what these super delegates say now carries no more weight than a public opinion poll suggesting who people say they will vote for in the future. And those can and do change every day.

What happened last night carries no more official weight than a poll now showing McCain beating Obama in a general election.The only way Obama can be the nominee now, before the convention is for Clinton to quit And while I have no way of knowing if she will, when her campaign chair introduced her last night as the next President of the United States it doesn't sound a whole lot like she is conceding. Nor should she.

The only way super delegate votes can have any real meaning right now is if she quits. But then super delegates wouldn't be able to change their minds even if they wanted to which doesn't sound like a very good idea given the volatility and changing fortunes of politics, that the convention is more than two months away, and given the fact that we are dealing with people who have made a way of life out of sticking their finger to wind to see which way it happens to be blowing.

The irony is, Clinton actually has more reasons to stay in than Obama does. She did win the popular vote ( for Democratic officials reading this that means more people voted for her than Obama) and her claim that she has received more votes than any Democratic candidate in the history of the primaries is true. Obama's lead of pledged delegates is only 77 out of over 4000 when the 55 challenged Michigan delegates aren't included. And no matter how one wants to look at it, in a winner take all system like the Republicans and the general election Clinton beat Obama for pledged delegates by more than 500.It is only the insane way that Democrats apportion delegates than has allowed Obama to pick up almost 700 delegates in states where he lost by landslides something that seems to have gone over the heads of Democratic super delegates. Without that Clinton is the clear winner.

Given the general ineptitude of Congressional Democrats and Democratic politicians, which is where most of the super delegates come from, it seems like a good idea to give them the ten weeks to the convention to make up their minds. The only reason they are being pushed now is because the Democratic leadership, led by two people who have a lower job approval rating than George Bush want it done for reasons that makes no sense other than these are people who react to nothing but fear.

But the rules which everyone likes to tout say there is no nominee until the convention nominates one. And a super delegate's vote isn't binding until then. To quote Obama supporters, those are the rules. Super delegates who have come out for Obama now would run from him like the plague if events started to re-enforce what many people can see now -- that he would lose badly against McCain.

Obama has finished with a whimper staggering to the finish and looking like a beaten candidate. If the timing were different and Clinton had reeled off these last 9 out of 11 landslide wins two months ago and Obama had won the small mid west caucuses now, Obama would be an afterthought and no super delegate would be supporting him. That is how short sighted and inept politicians can be. So it makes all the sense in the world to give it the two months to the convention and let these super delegates think about what they are doing.If Clinton were to get out now then they are stuck with Obama and there is no going back. Waiting until the convention is the only thing that makes sense for super delegates to do. But sense, common or otherwise is something that has been in short supply among Democrats for the last 8 years. So maybe it is up to Clinton to save the Democratic elite from themselves.

Last night CNN and Tim Russert and the rest of the media carried on as if anything that happened last night was official. It wasn't. And they know it. Nothing super delegates say now is binding and they know that too. But that didn't stop them from pushing the story they want to push. Politicians being what they are, sticking their finger to the wind to see which way its blowing, and sometimes not even getting that right, it is more of a sure bet that in a week if events changed so would their minds.

And even as the news media and super delegates were celebrating their collective wisdom with their usual degree of misplaced certainty, like that close up of the cordial glass in the movie "A Night to Remember" about the sinking of the Titanic, showing the brandy in the glass starting to tilt while the aristocracy played cards, four new polls came out yesterday that showed Obama losing ground and now in a tie with McCain while the same polls showed Clinton beating McCain in all four polls by 4 points.

Clinton should take this to the convention. Its the only lifeboat the Democrats have. If she doesn't, last night may very well be a night to remember for the Democrats. And for the same reason as the first one.

10 comments:

HeyJude said...

Marc,

I really enjoy your thoughts. Just started blogging myself out of utter frustration with this insane campaign season.

Thank you for your insight.

todd anthony said...

Brilliant insight...I'm curious to know how the superdelegates will go. If they pledge their support for Hillary after originally casting a "vote" so to speak for Obama, it could bring about bedlam in the party. But if Obama continues to bury himself, be it verbal gaffes, lack of experience, etc, how can the Democrats think he would have a chance against John McCain?

Todd Anthony
www.twincitiesconservative.blogspot.com

gerard nedich said...

more great writing from you Marc!

thanks for all the hard work...

-gerard

Anonymous said...

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READ THIS WHY HILLARY SHOULD START A THIRD PARTY CANDIDACY

Anonymous said...

Why do you repeat the tired mantra of "Hillary won the popular vote". No.. she didn't... the math only works out if you discount all the caucus state voters, give Obama no votes in MI (which is stupid because he wasn't on the ballot). Stop twisting the truth.. there were 11 caucus states where people voted in favor of Obama.. are you just ignoring those people? They are part of the "popular vote" as well.

kanani va said...

yes, i believe the smart thing for her to do would be to not concede as well. if she suspends that is okay. she needs a break most definitely and so does bill.

but if she does suspend then i would be happy for that knowing that things will keep streaming out about bo from now until august that could sway them towards hillary. i just don't want her to concede, please don't concede hillary!!!

what i have been hearing today in headlines and from dem leaders is that basically all they are proud of is that they nominated the first african american man.

that makes me ill to think that is what all this was about. they did not care to look deeper at all because if they did they would have seen he is just not qualified and so this is a sad day for affirmative action. i believe in affirmative action for protecting minority rights, but if someone is just not qualified they should not be pushed to the top using their ethnicity as an excuse.

i am so angry with these dems right now. i cannot be a dem anymore if they believe in overlooking if the person is even qualified, has any experience, and has really shady character relationships....

anyhoo, i am just really in a daze right now after hearing that all they seem to care about is that he is black. this almost would have been a fairer fight if hillary were black. she would be the nominee right now because their number one priority is that is his being black and she is the only qualified and experienced candidate and pretty much everything about her is already known and not out there hiding...

Anonymous said...

It's not just the MSM declaring him the winner. OB and camp are doing this as well! What gives?

Why is nominating the first AA man more important than nominating the first woman? And by the way why is no one asking this question?

Anonymous said...

In reality - the superdelegates really don't have anything to fear as long as they stay uncommitted publicly until the convention - which is what they really ought to do in reality. WHY? Because they vote at the convention by SECRET BALLOTS!!! No one will ever know who they really voted for and so they can truly vote their conscience as to who can win in the Fall and who will bring out the crowds for down-ballot elections. This is the intent and always has been. I will not be surprise if they gave it to Hillary if powerful people at work now can force the Michelle Obama "whitey" tape out - in it, she supposedly says some really anti-American, anti-Whites things. Really nasty - contrary to Obamabot thinking, people DO put country before party every time and will NEVER vote for someone they fear is anti-American, hates America, hates white people, and has terrorist/corrupt political and financial relationships, with Middle Eastern terrorists nevertheless.

Even of more consequence, if these relationships are further strengthened, the Democratic Party will officially be destroyed and lose all trust and credibility with the electorate forever as they will have nominated the very first anti-American Manchurian candidate in the history of America. This is the Karl Rove plan - he wants to go down in history as the operative who destroyed an American political party forever.

Anonymous said...

Marc,
I'm going to send this article to all my Hillarian friends who are devastated right now because of insane media hoopla. Right now is not the best time to watch news. Please Marc write more article like this. We don't hear this kind of insight from the media. All of them are groggy of drinking too much Kool-aid.

MDR said...

"Please Marc write more article like this. We don't hear this kind of insight from the media. All of them are groggy of drinking too much Kool-aid."


I intend to do just that. We had the media drinking Bush's Kool Aid for 7 years. The flavor is different now but the principle is the same.