Bernie Sanders has a lot to crow about and Clinton a lot to worry about based on the results of Super Tuesdays primaries. The contrast in their victories were stark and what they mean for the future.
There was only one close race in the Super Tuesday primary -- Massachusetts
which, a bastion of Democratic party establishment which one might have thought
would favor Clinton ended in a tie in terms of delegates won which is all that matters since the only point of the primaries is to win delegates. The actual margin of victory in terms of vote totals was Clinton edging out Sanders by a miniscule 1 1/2%, but in delegate totals it was a 50-50 tie.
That Sanders tied Clinton in a state that is about as establishment
Democrat as it gets, in a popular vote total that was tighter than Nevada and
ended up splitting the delegates 50-50 with Clinton was the much more impressive
feat for Sanders.
But it got better for Sanders as the night went on and made Clinton less
relevant
Clinton and Sanders took turns landsliding each other in the rest of the
states. But Clinton's landslides were not only all in the south were Obama and
his Democratic machine have great influence and the African
American vote is 4 to 5 times greater than the rest of the country, but
Clinton's wins in the south were all in Red states that Democrats have no
chance of winning in a general election and haven't won in decades. And if any
Democrat could pull off a win in one of those states it wouldn't be Clinton but Sanders.
Sanders landslide wins on the other hand were in Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Colorado and Vermont along with his tie in Massachusetts. Sanders appeal was
much broader than Clinton's showing his
strength from his home state of Vermont and a tie in Massachusetts in the
northeast, to Colorado and Oklahoma in the Southwest, and Minnesota in the mid
west. Clinton's strength was all in the Obama influenced south. And now with Clinton having played her best hand, her so called
"firewall" in the south, the south is over. And Clinton's delegate lead over
Sanders is very small. With 35 state primaries still to go.
Clinton has yet to prove she has the kind of broad
support a presidential candidate needs to win in November and is the better candidate. Sanders so far is
showing he does have that broad support. Clinton's support is based on her running on a third Obama term. Outside of the south that is not going over too big as a winning formula.
For now the race is close and its anybody's nomination though Sanders is showing so far that he is the candidate with much broader appeal. Without Obama and the Democratic party machine backing Clinton, the race would be over by now.
If that trend continues with Sanders showing strength everywhere else but
the south which are Red states in the general election, and Clinton is unable
to get real support to beat Sanders soundly anywhere else but the south, if Sanders finishes with the majority of delegates he will win the nomination and easily.
Super delegates? Forget them. The super delegate trials Clinton used to pad her delegate count is sleazy dishonest politics at its lowest and part of the agreed upon DNC collusion to do what it can to rig the nomination for Clinyon. Super delegates have never cast a vote in the history
of the Democratic party, nothing they say now counts one iota, they are there
only to break a hopelessly deadlocked convention if that should ever occur and otherwise have no vote. Donna Brazile said in 2008 at the convention Wyden it looked like Obama would lose a super delegate vote , that "if super delegates decide the nomination I will
quit the Democratic party".
Pelosi weighed in back in 2008 also and said super delegates were "obligated" to
vote for the candidate who won the most delegates in the primaries. They are not
going to be able to move the goal posts now to accommodate Clinton. If they tried they
would bring the Democratic party to its knees.
March 15 will show if the trend continues. If it does and further down the road,Sanders beats Clinton in Democratic states like New York, Pennsylvania, California and Florida,all distinct possibilities, its over. Michigan and Ohio on March 15 could be a reliable indicator.
As for those super delegates if they actually had to vote for
the first time in the history of the Democratic party, with Sanders finishing with any kind of majority of delegates, assuming they wanted to win in
November they would vote for Sanders
and whatever declarations were made 6 months earlier would be in a
dumpster where they belong. Along with CNN's political coverage.
With Sanders showing the breadth of his victories across a wide swath of
the country and with Clinton's victories concentrated in southern red states Democrats cant win in November, and a tie with Sanders in Massachusetts, it adds up to Sanders Super Tuesday as a lot more super than Clinton's. Even though the Clinton campaign tries to put on their happy face and pretend she will be the nominee. Not unless she can win it honestly . And no amount of bogus super delegate totals now will change that.
2 comments:
You are getting COMICALLY desperate.
Colorado and Minnesota run caucuses, which you should have the integrity to admit will always favor younger skewing voters who have less problem's standing in cold, dark, and inclement whether, many times with little comfortable seating. Hillary Clinton would have won both Minnesota and Colorado if they had held primaries instead of caucuses.
And Sanders not winning Massachusetts since that is Sander's territory was a remarkable defeat. So go all out for the Oklahoma win, since that's all you have to hang your desperation on.
Great analysis! And Sanders won Oklahoma too.
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