Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Why Sanders Super Tuesday Was Far More Impressive Than Clinton's.

Bernie Sanders has a lot to crow about and Clinton a lot to worry about based on the results of Super Tuesdays primaries. The contrast in their victories were stark and what they mean for the future.
There was only one close race in the Super Tuesday primary -- Massachusetts which,  a bastion of Democratic party establishment which one might have thought would favor Clinton ended in a tie in terms of delegates won which is all that matters since the only point of the primaries is to win delegates. The actual margin of victory in terms of vote totals was Clinton edging out Sanders by a miniscule 1 1/2%, but in delegate totals it was a 50-50 tie.
That Sanders tied Clinton in a state that is about as establishment Democrat as it gets, in a popular vote total that was tighter than Nevada and ended up splitting the delegates 50-50 with Clinton was the much more impressive feat for Sanders.
But it got better for Sanders as the night went on and made Clinton less relevant
Clinton and Sanders took turns landsliding each other in the rest of the states. But Clinton's landslides were not only all in the south were Obama and his Democratic machine have great influence and the African American vote is 4 to 5 times greater than the rest of the country, but Clinton's wins in the south were all in Red states that Democrats have no chance of winning in a general election and haven't won in decades. And if any Democrat could pull off a win in one of those states it wouldn't be Clinton but Sanders.
Sanders landslide wins on the other hand were in Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado and Vermont along with his tie in Massachusetts. Sanders appeal was much broader than Clinton's showing his strength from his home state of Vermont and a tie in Massachusetts in the northeast, to Colorado and Oklahoma in the Southwest, and Minnesota in the mid west. Clinton's strength was all in the Obama influenced south. And now with Clinton having played her best hand, her so called "firewall" in the south,  the south is over. And Clinton's delegate lead over Sanders is very small. With 35 state primaries still to go. 
Clinton has yet to prove she has the kind of broad support a presidential candidate needs to win in November and is the better candidate. Sanders so far is showing he does have that broad support. Clinton's support is based on her running on a third Obama  term. Outside of the south that is not going over too big as a winning formula. 
For now the race is close and its anybody's nomination though Sanders is showing  so far that he is the candidate with much broader appeal. Without Obama and the Democratic party machine backing Clinton, the race would be over by now.
If that trend continues with Sanders showing strength everywhere else but the south which are Red states in the general election,  and Clinton is unable to get real support to beat Sanders soundly anywhere else but the south, if Sanders finishes with the majority of delegates he will win the nomination and easily.
Super delegates? Forget them.  The super delegate trials Clinton used to pad her delegate count is sleazy dishonest politics at its lowest and part of the agreed upon DNC collusion to do what it can to rig the nomination for Clinyon. Super delegates have never cast a vote in the history of the Democratic party, nothing they say now counts one iota, they are there only to break a hopelessly deadlocked convention if that should ever occur and otherwise have no vote. Donna Brazile said in 2008  at the convention Wyden it looked like Obama would lose a super delegate vote , that "if super delegates decide the nomination I will quit the Democratic party".
Pelosi weighed in back in 2008 also and said super delegates were "obligated" to vote for the candidate who won the most delegates in the primaries. They are not going to be able to move the goal posts now to accommodate Clinton. If they tried they would bring the Democratic party to its knees.
March 15 will show if the trend continues. If it does and further down the road,Sanders beats Clinton in Democratic states like New York, Pennsylvania, California and Florida,all distinct possibilities,  its over. Michigan and Ohio on March 15 could be a reliable indicator.
As for those super delegates if they actually had to vote for the first time in the history of the Democratic party, with Sanders finishing with any kind of majority of delegates, assuming they wanted to win in November they would vote for Sanders and whatever declarations were made  6 months earlier would be in a dumpster where they belong. Along with CNN's political coverage.
With Sanders showing the breadth of his victories across a wide swath of the country and with Clinton's victories concentrated in southern red states Democrats cant win in November, and a tie with Sanders in Massachusetts,  it adds up to Sanders Super Tuesday as a lot more super than Clinton's. Even though the Clinton campaign tries  to put on their happy face and pretend she will be the nominee. Not unless she can win it honestly . And no amount of bogus super delegate totals now will change that.


Alessandro Machi said...

You are getting COMICALLY desperate.
Colorado and Minnesota run caucuses, which you should have the integrity to admit will always favor younger skewing voters who have less problem's standing in cold, dark, and inclement whether, many times with little comfortable seating. Hillary Clinton would have won both Minnesota and Colorado if they had held primaries instead of caucuses.
And Sanders not winning Massachusetts since that is Sander's territory was a remarkable defeat. So go all out for the Oklahoma win, since that's all you have to hang your desperation on.

Anonymous said...

Great analysis! And Sanders won Oklahoma too.