Monday, February 29, 2016

Why Smart Phones Make Clinton-Sanders Polls Worthless.

CNN unveiled a new national poll recently that showed Clinton beating Sanders 55-38. It might have raised some eyebrows as well as red flags since, outside of the south which is only a small section of the country, the poll does not reflect reality in terms of what has been happening in terms of actual votes in the primaries.

In states outside the south that Clinton has won, the results were practically a tie with Clinton winning by chin whiskers in Iowa and Massachusetts,a virtual tie in Missouri and Illinois and only by 5 in the Nevada caucus. Contrary to Clintons virtual ties in those states outside the South, in states where Sanders wins, he wins by landslide numbers. Which one would think are facts that might make CNN and other pollsters consider that their polls are absurd. Because they are.

And its not as if there aren't facts staring them right in the face that explain why.

Maybe this will help. 

Every poll  including all the exit polls from all the voting venues  with the exception of the South shows that Sanders destroys Clinton 84-9 with voters under 45. Sanders swamps Clinton among women 35 and under by 81-14.  Its fair to say that among younger voters under 45 Clinton is a virtual non-entity. Where  Clinton beats Sanders is with older voters, 65 and up. Including older women.

And that is what makes any poll comparing Sanders and Clinton worthless.Both national and local.

Because all polling is conducted by phone.But not all phones. Only landline phones.  Phone numbers that are randomly chosen by a computer based on some formula that is supposed to be scientific and within a certain margin of error and then auto dialed by computer.

Except federal law prohibits the use of auto dialers making unsolicited calls to cell phones. Which is the only way pollsters do polls. So all calls made by pollsters are to landlines only.  And in case CNN and other pollsters havent noticed most younger people which is the bulk of Sanders supporters, don't use land lines anymore. They only use smart phones. Most college students dont have landlines. Its older voters who are more likely to have land lines.And people 65 and older profile as Clinton voters. That is where her strength lies.

So most Sanders voters who use only smart phones never get called in polling and so are never included.National polls and even local polls are always going to be skewed toward Clinton. 

Given all that the 55-38 poll actually looks pretty good for Sanders.  Because it means that 38% of people who profile as Clinton voters nationally support Sanders. Compared to less than 10% of voters who profile as Sanders voters who support Clinton. So you can automatically add on for Sanders in any national poll. Where he is probably leading by more than the polls show. Where he is behind, the gap is narrower. 

Another reason CNN and other national polling on Clinton vs Sanders has been inaccurate is that many polls are based on those who call themselves Democrats or are registered as Democrats. Many of Sanders younger supporters do not identify with being Democrats, but only identify with Sanders, not the Democratic party. And it is Sanders bringing them out not the Democratic party establishment which skews towards Clinton.  So based on CNNs and other parameters of asking respondents if they are Democrats or registered Democrats first and dismissing them if they say no, that also eliminates a lot of Sanders supporters from being included in polls. It's significant that in the exit polls in Michigan 73% who said they identified as Independent voted for Sanders. 

With the age, habit and lifestyle of the supporters of Clinton and Sanders so different as well as so relevant when it comes to national and even local polling, and with pollsters unable to call cell or smart phones which eliminates most Sanders voters from the polls the next question to be asked is:  does the news media know this and are simply completely dishonest and dont care knowing their polls regarding Sanders and Clinton are worthless, are they biased towards Clinton and the establishment they always kowtow to, or are they really too stupid to have figured it out?

Probably all of the above.  Another reason the mainstream media is proven to be incompetent, dishonest and have values and standards so low as to make them almost worthless. And you dont need a poll to know that's not only true but what most people think. 

NOTE: This article was updated to include results up to and including the March 15 primaries.

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