Monday, July 7, 2008

IS OBAMA REALLY THE NOMINEE? DONT ASK OBAMA OR THE MEDIA, ASK A BOOKMAKER.

A friend of mine who knew I was working on the Florida and Michigan fiasco on behalf of getting the delegates seated used to send me links to bookmakers around the world, most of them in London who were taking bets on who would be the Democratic nominee. Obama was always the heavy favorite. He was 1-5 to win. But so was Big Brown 1-5 to win the Belmont and the triple crown.

Before the race he was considered a cinch In fact it wasn't going to be a race it was going to be a coronation, the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. Nothing could beat him. He was undefeated. Except that once the race was run it didn't happen and he finished last proving once again that the only sure thing is that there is no such thing.

No one knows this better than Obama. When asked at a meeting of Clinton donors if he supported Senator Clinton's name on the ballot and her name in nomination his answer was something along the lines of " I'm not here to negotiate the convention". Obviously Senator Obama knows the best way to insure he doesn't lose is to do what he did to Alice Palmer in Chicago when he first ran for office -- try to force her off the ballot and keep her name from being placed in nomination..He and a few sycophants like Bill Richardson tried to do a little rough riding during the primaries and tried to force her out of race. So did the press and people like Jonathan Alter and Eleanor Clift and bloggers like Ben Smith at Politico. It's hard to lose a race when you can keep the other horse from showing up.

Its obvious that Obama knows what the press doesn't and the last thing he wants is Clinton's name placed in nomination as is her right since she is still a candidate. And she is entitled to a roll call vote and the opportunity for superdelegates to vote for whom they want at the time -- at the convention which is the only place it counts. If there is enough pressure on the DNC, if they realize they are heading for a disaster in the fall not just in the Presidential election but congressional elections if Democrats refuse to support the party, he wont have a choice.

As of right now, Senator Obama, the DNC, Howard Dean, and a lot of other people know that Senator Obama has far from clinched the nomination, He hasnt. And if you want any more proof, dont ask Obama, or the Disassociated Press, don't ask Howard Dean or Keith Olbermann or Nancy Pelosi or anyone in the media. Ask the person who knows and whose knowledge you can rely on. Ask a bookmaker. Ask any of them if they're paid off a nickle on all the bets made on Obama to be the nominee. They will say no and will tell you they don't pay off until the race is over. And they will tell you to come back in August. If you win.

Everyone knows the saying that its not over until the fat lady sings. Add to that, "and when the bookmakers pay off".

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

Clearly Hillary hasn't relinquished her delegates because SHE doesn't think this is over yet.
And she's right!

What I don't get though is how the Messiah can determine who's name is or isn't on the ballot. What authority does he have? This is before any actual vote, so he's not even the official nominee let alone head of the party. How can HE decide something like this?

Marc Rubin said...

"How can HE decide something like this?"

He cant but if he has the party machinary behind him,Dean etc could try and make him happy. It's obvious they are scared to death of Hillary.

If they see there is fierce opposition to not placing her name in nomination by rank and file Democrats and there is a bigger price to pay for the party they will back off.

that is what the Denver Group hopes to do with public pressure by running ads.

democraticjack said...

Knowing a thing or two about the ponies, I had cautioned people before the Belmont about why Big Brown might not succeed. There were legitimate reasons.
There are indeed even more reasons for people not to take an Obama Presidential candidacy for granted. You, Marc, and Heidi Li are making a great case for that. May I suggest that you lend your voice, when you can, to commenting over at bitterpoliticz as we "troops" need you to mingle among us. Heidi does an excellent job of stopping by and giving us a shot in the arm and I think an occasional visit by you would boost The Denver Group project immensely.

MsBluegrass said...

Thank you for this post Marc. Even though I just found your site recently (I am always a day late and a dollar short), I have read comments you have posted on different articles and have always been impressed at your insight and passion in your support for Senator Clinton. Being a native of KY, I always enjoy a good horse race, and I too have found it unwise to put all my money on that "favorite to win" in the odds category. We do not always know what surprises tomorrow may bring, but I am off to put a little money on the filly..TDG ((HUGS)) from MsBluegrass

waiting4hrc said...

Dear Marc,

It ain't over 'til the lady in the pantsuit says it is!

redmanrt said...

What, apparently sentient people are still supporting the criminal?

mm said...

Marc, We actually put two bets on Hillary Clinton to win and nomination and then to win the Presidency when we were in England in May. We are still holding on to those tickets. The odds weren't great, but it was another small way of actively showing our faith in Hillary.

misanthropicus said...

Why should Hillary quit? She still can get the nomination and she deserves it. Go, girl, go!

susan h said...

I too love Hillary and know she is the only one to lead us out of the messes we are in. However, the scary part is that while we are sitting here lauding her praises, in less than 4 months Obama could be our next president! His deviousness, lack of scruples and that of his campaign manager, David Axelrod, rivals Karl Rove in its intensity. Obama doesn't seem to be worried about reaching out to loyal democrats, he is looking for new fish, new states to fry. I think one of his strategies is that Obama plans to give some exceptionally hyptonizing speeches for the eternally gullible at the rock-idol convention in Denver. And with the movement of the DNC to Chicago, he has access to Mayor Daley and the Chicago machine operations. If they are really frightened of Hillary, all the more reason to block her at the convention. The clock is ticking, and I am trembling in my boots (sandals).

Mary Ellen said...

Excellent post, Tom.

I was hoping that when Obama started to show his true colors, backpeddling on removing troops from Iraq, FISA, NAFTA, and Campaign Finance, that his staunch supporters would put their foot down and demand the SD's to dump this guy. But instead, I'm seeing these so-called Progressives make excuses for him, even when he is willing to vote to take away 4th Amendment rights.

I'm not ready to toss off my support for Hillary, but I am definitely ready to toss off my registration as a Democrat and change it to Independent.

Anonymous said...

The word I am hearing at HireHeel.com and the Confluence is that the DNC will take Hillary off the ballot unless she collects another 5 million toward her debt. I don't know why this would be the case, or why the DNC would have this right.

Anonymous said...

I forgot to add that the 5million must be collected by July 11. This Friday.

As if I didn't already have 100's of reasons not to vote for Obama, this strong arming by the DNC would be enough. I am getting to the point that I hate the DNC, and I am a lifelong Democrat.

margmackall said...

Where are OUR lawyers????How does someone get a copy of the rules of the DNC? There has to be written rules or is this entire process one of tradition? If it is written in the rules that a candidate is to be placed into nomination and then afforded a roll call based on the fact that they are a candidate, then how in the hell does OB have any say in it...he is merely a presumptive nominee...nothing more... although I am sure he thinks he will walk on water at the football stadium when he is fullfilling MLK's dream....No, this man needs to be investigated and it needs to begin with Rezko. Obama is trying to be what is called, SLICK. The base problem is: he lacks the talent to even come close to being slick! He AIN'T slick, we just need to get on our game!
Marg Mackall, central Ky
msblugrass: please contact me...we need to get a group going here in ky.

suef4hil said...

It has been striking how Obama and the DNC have walked around for MONTHS acting like this nomination was over, a given. I have been trying to figure out how the O'bots have swarmed to him and followed the lead of the DNC. It is truly mind-boggling!
I keep thinking every day I wake up the nation will come to its' senses or that Rod Serling will be waiting for me at my breakfast table!
Thanks Marc for the brilliant insight

Amarissa said...

Well said! need more uplifting posts as this! Thank you!

Anonymous said...

I am pleased that there are so many like minded people blogging and making their logical feeling and coming from different points of view known...

Join us at blog.pumapac.org

BMW60

GrandMe said...

The fat lady isn't singing--in fact I haven't even warmed up my vocal cords....
I think we all need to repeat that there is no legitimate nominee yet, and attack/destroy the mantra that Obama has already won. Speak of it casually and in heated arguments, email it to friends who may or may not care, gently contradict those who claim it as a fact, write letters to editors (brief and to the point) and very definitely pound on the broadcasting media. Stand firm. Back the DNC into a corner so they cannot ignore the facts.

tessa said...

I read all these posts and maybe it is just I who believe that the glass is more than half empty. And while I wont give up on doing all I can to have HRC "heard" at the convention,it looks like that may not happen.As for her becoming the nominee? A nice fantasy.The argument that Obama can't get elected? Well, he may take care of that by asking HRC to be VP? On the other hand, take a look at the Bush legacy and the very weak candidacy that is McCain......
Someone convince me that I am wrong!

tessa said...

I read all these posts and maybe it is just I who believe that the glass is more than half empty. And while I wont give up on doing all I can to have HRC "heard" at the convention,it looks like that may not happen.As for her becoming the nominee? A nice fantasy.The argument that Obama can't get elected? Well, he may take care of that by asking HRC to be VP? On the other hand, take a look at the Bush legacy and the very weak candidacy that is McCain......
Someone convince me that I am wrong!

Sarah Ferguson said...

I agree with you Tessa. And I think Hillary is, for the most part, committed to helping Obama win.

They say three is a charm. Let's hope they're right because I already smell the same contrived positions of the Gore-Bush race and the Kerry-Bush race. It's smells like the same debate, or artifice of one, and frankly, it bores me.

It's not about me, nor millions of others. I don't know what it's about anymore.

My faith in Obama winning is so weak that I now hope he doesn't ask Hillary to run with him. I would hate to see her go down with him and in 2nd place, she won't be able to project the power that she could in 1st. Obama doesn't want to be upstaged.

I'm a little cynical today, sorry.

Sarah

ps has anyone seen this?
http://www.electionnight08.com/

Anonymous said...

tessa, even though it's a LONG way until Nov. You can just look at what's happening with the polls to see were this seems to be headed. McCain was down by 7 in that poll of polls thing, then by 6 now only by 2. Come next week he may actually take the lead.

CNN put out their latest poll which showed the number of Clinton supporters who say they'll vote for "O" is down too, 60% to 54%.
This is AFTER all this so called unity crap the DNC has been pushing down our throats.
Frankly the only one who can beat Obama IS Obama. This election is ALL ABOUT HIM. He's made sure of that!

And he's doing a bang up job so far of turning off even his own base. I've been reading that many have lost their enthusiasm for him, they say they'll still go to vote, but their heart isn't in it. If THAT trend continues it really WILL be over! If people don't care, or feel turned off or betrayed now....by Nov. unenthusiastic voters may become no show voters!

trist said...

Sarah

ps has anyone seen this?
http://www.electionnight08.com/


No, I hadn't seen that before, but I think they're a bit off on that map. I predict with the exception of Ill. it'll be totally red. That's what 49 states, or going by the Messiah's math 56, oops make that 57 he DID say there was one more to go!

trist said...

I keep thinking every day I wake up the nation will come to its' senses or that Rod Serling will be waiting for me at my breakfast table!

There have been MANY times during this primary I had the twilight zone feeling too! It just felt like something was and is wrong!

Now I feel like we're in a specific episode of the zone. You know that snotty little kid with the power to control EVERYone else! Give him whatever he wants and "think happy thoughts" or else!

Really, while he's distracted can't someone take a vase or a chair, and end this!!!!!!

tessa said...

Sarah and anon.: Thanks for your posts. Its so strange. I am so angry with the DNC and Obama that I find myself feeling more virulence toward them than I do McCain who, even when he was the darling of many Democrats, I did not like and did not trust. So deep is my ire that I find myself wishing I was stupid enough to vote Republican! As a Liberal Dem I would never be able to live with myself if I did!. I had hoped I could write in for Hillary,but in Massachusetts one apparently cant ( I wil double check) I am writing in anyway because having been raised in Apartheid South Africa even a "spoliled" ballot is excercising one's right to vote.
As for the DNC, The "rules" committee and the tactics of the Obama operatives in both the caucuses and in Lake County,Indiana.....Disenfranchisement,suspected voter fraud, gerrymandering, smears in the name of the "race card" etc, etc
All so reminiscent ( although not in terms of degree and prevalence) of Apartheid South Africa.
Its dejavu all over again....
Marc, I am one of the Count the votes cast Pac!

Marc said...

"Someone convince me that I am wrong!"

Having Clinton "heard" at the convention is not what we are going for. Having her name placed in nomination which is her right, having an honest roll call vote and giving superdelegates the opportunity to vote for her is the only acceptable option and that is what we are going to try and pressure Dean and the DNC to do.

Clinton never conceded, is still a candidate and has retained all her delegates. If she had wanted to she could have released them a long time ago. She isnt keeping them for the company.

Obama is self-destructing and a 175 superdelegate switch to Clinton gives her the nomination.

On Friday there will be details on the Denver Groups web site (www.thedenvergroup.blogspot.com) relating to the Group's first ad aimed right at the DNC on this. The more contributions we get the more of a presence we can be.This is not about Senator Clinton being heard. This is about everybody who voted for her being heard.

Calls to the DNC as well as what the Denver Group will do through mass media and letting them know that Clinton's name in nomination and an honest vote is the only acceptable outcome will help keep the pressure on.

tessa said...

Marc. I completely understood that from the get go! When I said "heard" I meant that in an all encompassing sense.
Gosh, please dont think I am as bad as all that!
I read the site which is why I commented. I am just feeling a bit negative right now. That too will pass

Anonymous said...

FROM NEW YORK TIMES...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/us/politics/09cnd-gate.html

Thomas Steg, a spokesman for the chancellor, said Mrs. Merkel had “only limited understanding for using the Brandenburg Gate as an election campaign backdrop,” and that she had “great skepticism as to whether it is appropriate to bring an election campaign being fought not in Germany but in the United States to the Brandenburg Gate.”
********

Apparently, Germany is not buying the Kool Aid...

********
Also...know I've been a broken record on this...but keep thinking about how during civil rights movement..

I believe
MLK, Jr ultimately succeeded...in part...because of his genius in staging events which garnered international media attention...which ultimately shamed American into addressing racial injustice. (SHAME...GUILT...all age-tested, even if un- PC...underappreciated...modes of motivating...)

Who can forget the images of fire hoses and dogs unleashed on schoolchildren!

...which demanded international attention...as well as stirring public outrage that contributed to changing public opinion needed to bring about civil rights laws.

******

I feel that Marc's writing hits similar notes...hoping that as part of Denver Group media campaign...foreign press...who do seem to GET IT...can be included...to elevate level of SHAME...or at least PRESSURE.
******
To refer to another great moment when democracy turned away from tyranny...

DURING MCCARTHY/ARMY HEARTINGS with SENATOR JOE MCCARTHY

Welch (The Army's attorney) asking rhetorically of McCarthy, "Have you no sense of deceny, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_of_Order_(film)
*****

I think Marc is the heroic Welch of the current Democratic Party tyranny...demanding accountability!
*******

Anonymous said...

Scared, scared, scared...
the wind might shift in another direction. Hillary might win!
Even the movement of the grass is according to His wishes, so it can be Hillary if He wishes, too. Anything can happen.

Anonymous said...

Whoops...in reference to NYT article...neglected to provide title and background...which is...

Skepticism on Obama Speech in Berlin


BACKGROUND...
FROM ARTICLE...

"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany is uneasy over the prospect of Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, delivering a speech at this city’s historic Brandenburg Gate when he visits Europe later this month, a spokesman said Wednesday.

As Mr. Steg put it, “No German candidate would think of using the National Mall or Red Square in Moscow for rallies, because it would be considered inappropriate.”
....

In 1987, with the gate as a backdrop, President Ronald Reagan urged the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to “open this gate” and “tear down this wall.” In 1994, four years after German reunification, President Bill Clinton spoke on the eastern side of the gate and declared that "Berlin is free."

suef4hil said...

Marc- I am eagerly awaiting your analysis of yesterday's vote and Obama's pissing on the 4th amendment.
I am very hopeful that the bookie pays on HRC after the convention and Barry's actions just seem to be making it less of a long shot?

Anonymous said...

Is there any real chance that Obama will NOT be the nominee? At this stage of the game I don't think the DNC would allow anything at the convention other than his coronation. Could someone please explain when did the "Party" become more important than the "Country". I am still trying to figure out how can the DNC, Dean and Pelosi overlook all of this man's shortcomings, his questionable associations, his obvious lack of patriotism and try to push him down our throats to get us to vote for him??? What is the future of our country going to be in the hands of a man such as Obama?
This election once again many of us (or maybe just me) will be voting for the "lesser" of two evils. Please don't be offended by what I am going to say because I have the greatest respect for all of you and enjoy reading your very insightful and wonderful comments (Marc Rubin, you are a wonderful writer!!!), but I CANNOT vote for Obama and, I think, that a "no vote" or writing HRC's name instead will end up being a vote for him.
My dream... Hillary finally gets offered the VP post and, loud and clear, she says "Thanks, but NO THANKS!!
Why can't she run as an Independent? Why all the loyalty to a party that has kicked her in the teeth time and time again?

Marc Rubin said...

"Is there any real chance that Obama will NOT be the nominee?"

If Clinton's name is on the ballot and her name is put in nominaton an there is a roll call vote, if 175 of Obama's 438 super delegate declarations changed their vote to Clinton she would be the nominee.

trist said...

For anyone who doubts that there is REAL hope for Hillary to come out of the convention as our nominee, go listen to Will Bower one of the founders of PUMA who co-hosted the "No-We-Wont" radio show on Wed. You can here it here:http://www.blogtalkradio.com/NO-WE-WONT/2008/07/09/NO-WE-WONT-PUMA-RADIO
He said that already 8 super delegates who had pledge to the messiah have switched over, or back over, to Hillary.

People, this movement(unlike that corporate funded total fabrication of Obamas) is REAL. And it's WORKING!

Right now there is a major push to retire Hillary debt. Will was on FOX today speaking about it. Apparently Dean and the DNC are forcing Hillary to retire her debt by THIS FRIDAY that is July 11 or they will use that as some lame excuse to remove her name from the ballot!

Will said we are nearly there, and feels confident we will make the goal, but if you can help by giving ANYthing at all please go to Hillary's site and do so.

We are in the fight of our lives for this country and we can win this...we HAVE to!

PUMA POWER!

MusicIsOurHigh said...

Umm, Hillary only suspended her campaign because it allows her to continue raising funds to pay off her Debt.

According to Hillary, Barack is the nominee and I agree.

I do believe it would be great if all of the people who refuse to vote for anyone but Hillary will now contribute the max to her campaign to help her pay off her debt so the vendors who did their service will finally get paid.

BalconesFalk said...

"Things must be looking really bad. The Democrats are pulling out all the stops to keep the campaign from petering out before the nomination is even in place. Too bad they chose to blow off 58% of their voters who happen to be women.

The party elites gave Senator Clinton a bum’s rush out of the race citing some very spurious mathematical projections. Her elected delegates were three-tenths-of-one-percent less than Senator Obama's. From a statistician’s standpoint that isn't even statistically significant. It certainly wasn't enough for him to "close the deal."

Using bandwagon propaganda and some cash-carrots on sticks, some three hundred [out of 800] Super Delegates were corralled into assisting Senator Obama up over the hurdle to be the putative nominee.

I suppose we'll get to see how desperate the situation is if the Party Honchos attempt to deny Senator Clinton the honor of having her name placed in nomination with speeches, immediately followed by the litany of a roll call vote—covered gavel to gavel with the whole world watching.

Even Howard Dean with 14% of the votes was granted that honor. It is a Democratic Party Tradition. Let the numbers of delegates decide, state by state in convention assembled. That's what they were delegated to do--to faithfully represent the votes of their constituents. Anything less will be counter-democratic.

If Senator Clinton is not placed in nomination having had 18,000,000 Democratic voters declare their preference for her, if the nomination of Senator Obama is done like a ramrod down our throats by "acclamation," I will have to give up on democracy."

Anonymous said...

You Suck!