There seems to be a consensus among certain segments of our society known as journalists and Obama supporters that its been a fait accompli that Obama will win the democratic nomination.
We've had Jonathan Alter's brilliant political insight in Newsweek suggesting Clinton get out of the race back in early March, before she won Ohio, Texas,and Rhode Island, Jim Vandehei's column in Politico.com called "Hillary Has No Chance", and Obama political mouthpeices like Richardson and Leahy calling for her to drop out (so that Obama could play out the good cop/bad cop routine and come on as Mr. Noble saying Clinton should stay in the race).
But the more one looks at the actual facts and not the dishonest spin of the media or Obama supporters, the facts say it's Obama who is going home and in fact has no chance for the nomination.
There are the simple, irrefutable facts supporting this. Facts that have existed for quite some time and ignored by media types like Alter, Maureen Down, Keith Olbermann and other Obama cheerleaders in the media who want to skew perceptions and then act as if they are reality in the service of, not journalism but in promoting their own agenda.
So here are a few facts that should tell them, Obama's supporters and Obama himself that they are not in Kansas anymore.
Obama's lead in the popular vote is, as of now, a day before the PA primary, 0.06%.That is 92,000 votes. That is going to be gone after Tuesday and Clinton will have taken the popular vote lead and in all liklihood will not give it up since she is favored to win 6 of 8 of the remaining primaries.So it will be Clinton who is going to end the primary season with the popular vote which alone gives her 100% of the "will of the people" argument. Even if there were nothing else it would be enough to secure the remainder of the uncommitted super delegates since the argument has been made that super delegates should not overturn the will of the people.
This figure of a 92,000 includes the popular vote of both Florida and Michigan. And don't tell me that in counting the popular vote Florida and Michigan doesn't count. Even if there are some dumb enough to believe that after what happened in 2000 the Democrats would send out a candidate who was there only because votes weren't counted in Florida, there is not a single reason not to count them in the popular vote. Unless of course youre hoping to steal an election.( As an aside, the principled Obama actually floated the proposition that he and Clinton split the Florida and Michigan delegates 50-50 even though he was landslided in both primaries. In other words Mr. Principled Politician was willing to try and steal delegates that didn't belong to him, that he didn't earn, didnt' win, and that the voices of the people who placed those votes said were not for him but for Clinton).
As for their delegates, Dean has vowed they will be seated, and they most certainly will be. But even if they werent, super delegates can still count. And if you count Florida and Michigan's delegates, Obama's true delegate lead one day before the Pennsylvania primary is 70, not the 140 being touted by the media .Clinton netted 70( or more) delegates in both of those fair and square primaries and an inside dispute over what amounted to a parking violation isn't going to negate that. Not unless the Democrats want to kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye and give the election to McCain which isn't going to happen.
A big win in PA on Tuesday will cut that 70 delegate lead to less than 50 and and a Clinton win of 60% of the vote or more, a very real possibility, could cut the lead in half. to 35. It could even be more depending on the size of the Clinton win, which based on the past performances of the current polls ( which have under counted Clintons margin of victory by 10 or more) a win of 20 pts. or more is possible.
A delegate lead of 50 or less is certainly a surmountable lead and the polls in the upcoming primaries show Clinton leading in 6 of the 8 remaining. So she has a very good shot at endiing up with the delegate lead as well as being a virtual lock to win the popular vote.
That would be more than enough to show that Obama has no chance but there is more. Clinton will have won every important state in the northeast, Florida, the entire southwest from Oklahoma to Nevada, the industrial Midwest and California. She has also won Tennessee and is favored heavily in Indiana, W.Va and Ky. Since when does the loser of all those states get the nomination? And all the other metrics which show a candidates strength are overwhelmingly in Clinton's favor.
Here are a few as reported by Michael Barone in US News and World Report.
In electoral votes Clinton beats Obama 263-202 before PA. In population of states won, one of the most important and strongest indicators of strength in a general election as well as the will of the people, Clinton leads 163,000,000 to 101,000,000. and that is going to increase enormously after the PA primary. These arent landslide margins, these are earthquake margins. The population of the states Clinton has won is 63% greater than Obama's now and is going to increase to more than 70% after Tuesday's primary.
And in states that had actual elections and not caucuses Clinton beats Obama 2-1.
Finally, if Democrats apportioned delegates in primaries that were winner take all, like the Republicans which is the only sane way of doing it since it emulates the general election, Clinton right now would have a 300 delegate lead.
Most of these statistics are more than a month old. Yet it didn't stop the mainstream news media from painting a picture of Obama's invincibility and inevitability when it' been the opposite that has been true. A stunning picture of media dishonesty which I think will haunt them with the public for a long, long time.
Given all the metrics showing Obama is clearly the weaker candidate and that a Clinton candidacy is really the will of the people, given the exposure of Obama's unprincipled relationships with people like Wright, Rezko and Ayers and his deceptions and the misstatemens he has made when first confronted by them, and the justifiable mistrust that has been created in both his judgement, abilities, honesty and patriotism, and add to that the head to head match ups with McCain in states Democrats have to win, Ohio, Pa, and Florida, where the polls show Clinton completely wipes out Obama and beats McCain where Obama can't, there will not be a super delegate with 2c for a brain who wants to win in November who is not going to vote for Clinton by the time the primary season ends. Which is why most of them are waiting to do just that.
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