Friday, April 25, 2008


Dick Morris is at it again. His latest brilliant politcal insight is again on display and it's his favorite topic ( or is it hope?) -- Clinton having no chance at the nomination.

And so Morris continues his farewell tour as the Clown Prince of political consulting giving us more of his insight, taking time to enlighten us between sessions of sticking pins in a Hillary Clinton voodoo doll. The question is, is anyone listening? Does anyone really care?

This is the same political genius who predicted that Hillary would "crash" in California and Obama would win. He wrote two peices, "Why Hillary Will Crash and Burn in California" and "Why Hillary Can't Win". That is the same California that is located on the planet earth ( in case Morris was looking for some wiggle room). And the same California Clinton won by 14 pts. a landslide margin.

To be fair, the Rassmussen Poll which publishes a lot of Morris' drivel also had their poll the day before the election as Obama actually winning by a point which must have had Morris drooling. This is also the same poll that had Clinton ahead by 2 in Ohio, a state she won by 10. So I guess the margin of error for the Rassumussen Poll is now around 11.

Morris then wrote another peice of objective political journalism after Obama's big losses called "Obama Has To Hit Back and HARD!" One can envision Morris making a fist and punching his palm when he finished that one.

What is really mystifying is how you can be proven to be so completely wrong about every mindless thing you think and say, day after day and week after week and still be given a platform to express your opinions. But, then again if all it took to silence someone was being wrong all the time we wouldn't have a mass media would we.

The lastest drivel from Morris is this:

"The Democratic superdelegates aren't about to risk a massive and sanguinary civil war by taking the nomination away from the candidate who won more elected delegates. If they ever tried it, we'd see a repeat of the demonstrations that smashed the 1968 Chicago convention and ruined Hubert Humphrey's chances of victory. "

First Morris is assuming ( or is it hoping) that Florida and Michigan wont be seated. If you count their delegates now ( for arguments sake since Obama always likes to frame his remarks as "making the argument") Obama's delegate lead is only 57. Very surmountable. In fact based on Clinton's lead in the polls in 6 of the 8 remaining primaries she has a good shot at getting the delegate lead.

But more to the point, it is Clinton who now has the popular vote lead ( yes counting the votes in Florida and Michigan and regardless of what happens with the delegates there is no rational reason to not count them when you total up how many votes each candidate actually received).

The fact is, whether Clinton ends the primary season with the delegate lead or not, she is going to end with the popular vote lead and Obama's delegate lead, if he keeps it, will be so small as to be insignificant and will not influence a super delegates decision.

Add to that these facts: Obama has the delegate lead at all because he was awarded 610 delegates getting landslided by Clinton in 13 of 15 of the biggest states ( and losing Texas by 4 so losing 14 of the 15 biggest states) and received those delegates based more on the allocation of delegates based on John Kerry's vote in 2004 than anything he's done.He won another 125 delegates in mid state caucuses totally slanted towards his demographics and in states that havent gone Democratic in 40 years. Those delegates were won racking up vote totals like, 11,000 in Nebraksa.

As for the convention, Morris again has it completely wrong.

What would look like 1968 would be if Florida and Michigan arent seated. They are vowing to show up anyway. Imagine the scene on television if they hold a sit in, refusing to move unless they are seated. What is Dean going to do? Call the cops while the country watches as they are handcuffed and dragged away? Can you see those network shots of the delegations empty seats?And what of Obama? Imagine the spectacle of the first serious African American candidate keeping his mouth shut and supporting the dragging away of people having a sit in because their votes arent being counted. That would really rally the troops and make the rest of the country rush out to vote for Obama wouldnt it.

If Florida and Michigan arent seated it will not only gurantee that the Democrats will lose the White House and the Congress it would probably destroy the party. If super delegates dont take their votes into consideration when casting their own as far as "the will of the people" is concerned, there will be mass defections from the Democrats that they wont recover from for years to come.

There is really not a super delegate with 2c for a brain who is not going to vote for Clinton if she ends up with the popular vote and the delegate lead counting Florida and Michigan, or if Obama's delegate lead, counting those states, is under a 100 and it surely will be. After what happend in 2000 the Democrats are simply not going to send out a candidate who is there only because votes werent counted in Florida. And if Democrats apportioned delegates in any kind of a sane way, Clinton would have a 450 delegate lead now.

The electibility issue is already decided. It's clearly in Clinton's favor as the primary map shows, the fact that she beat Obama 2-1 in states that held elections and not caucuses and every poll shows that in the batteground states the Democrats have to win against McCain there is no contest between Clinton and Obama. And those battleground states happen to be, Florida, Pa, and Ohio.

I think Dick Morris should save his breath. And his pins. I dont think anyone is going to be taking Dick Morris' advice anytime soon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Exactly. Dick Morris' predictions of doom for Hillary are always wrong. He needs to get over himself.