Saturday, April 19, 2008


These are the latest Newsweek polls regarding Clinton/Obama for the democratic nomination and the head to head match ups for each against McCain.

Democratic nomination:

04/16 - 04/17 - 588 RV - Obama 54 - Clinton 35 - Obama +19.0

General Election

McCain 44 - Obama 48 - Obama +4.0

McCain 43 - Clinton 47 - Clinton +4.0

Same poll. Same methodology. So what are we to believe? One very real possibility is that the Newsweek poll is the work of village idiots. This is especially true when compared with other polls. But since this poll is almost certainly to be used by pro Obama forces in the media ( Newsweek is already using it to show that Clinton is in a tailspin) lets take a closer look because if the polls are accurate, it is devastingly bad news for Obama.

According to these numbers, Obama loses 6% of his supporters in an Obama-Clinton matchup to McCain while in the head to head Presidential matchup against McCain, Clinton picks up 12%. Which shows clearly that Obama is the much weaker candidate against McCain.

Of course it also might show that the Newsweek poll isnt worth a dime and in that case Obama's 19 pt lead over Clinton is nonsense. But if it is to be believed, Democrats favor Obama as the nominee by 19 pts over Clinton but 6% of them would desert Obama and vote for McCain, while Clinton picks up all of Obama's McCain defections in a general election. Make sense? Only if you believe that a lot of Obama's Democratic supporters are idiots. Which may or may not be the case. One thing we do know. Someone is an idiot.

So is the poll just worthless or, if Democrats choose Obama as the nominee is it simply how Democrats lose elections? And why is it that the news media trumpets the fact that the poll shows Obama with a 19 pts lead over Clinton in the nomination race but says nothing about both beating McCain by 4? Are they afraid of looking stupid? No,cant be. If that was the case none of them would show up for work in the morning.

Other polls?

How about both Zogby and Rassmussen. Zogby had Obama and Clinton tied in Ohio the day before the primary. Clinton won by 10 so when looking at Zogby factor in a margin of error of 10 in Clintons favor. Rassmussen had Obama by 1 in California the day before the primary which Clinton won by 15. And Rassmussen had Clinton by 2 in Ohio. Taking an average, factor a margin of error 12 in favor of Clinton for a Rassmussen poll. The interesting thing is factoring those numbers in both polls they would be in line with the Survey USA poll taken for the four biggest TV stations in PA, giving Clinton a lead of anywhere from 14-18 pts.

And these are the latest tracking polls for the general election, the most startling being the Gallup poll which now shows Clinton leading by 1. When compared with the Newsweek poll one thing is clear no matter who you are for: One of them are so stupid, so incomptetent, so inept they should never be quoted again. The question is, which one?

Gallup Tracking - 04/16 - 04/18 - 1241 V - Obama 45 - Clnton 46 - Clinton +1.0
Rasmussen Tracking - 04/15 - 04/18- 900 LV -Obama 45- Clinton 43-Obama +2.0
Newsweek 04/16 - 04/17 - 588 RV -Obama 54- Clinton 35 -Obama +19.0

Based on past performances the following polls should be looked at as for entertainment purposes only:

ABC News/Washington Post
CBS/New York Times

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