Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Why Hillary Clinton Clinched Nothing. And Can't. Really.

There is an old Woody Allen line, "When you tell the truth all the time you never have to remember anything".

What a dishonest Democratic party, super delegates, a dishonest Debby Wasserman-Schultz and DNC and an even more dishonest collection of banana republic news media headed by the AP, New York Times, CNN and MSNBC all colluding with Hillary Clinton in attempting to rig and steal the nomination,didn't remember was something obvious but crucial in their single minded intent of using unofficial super delegate declarations for Clinton to get her to the coveted 2383 delegate total.

And like most people who try to lie, cheat, or steal their way to something that isnt rightfully theirs and haven't earned, there is always something they forget that trips them up. Its how criminals get caught. And the attempted putsch by Clinton,the DNC,her supporters and a corrupt colluding news media is no different.

And what has tripped them all up and what usually trips up people so arrogant as to think rules or laws dont apply to them is just that. The rules .Because its the Democratic Party's own rules that can be found here,  that proves Clinton clinched nothing. And not only didn't clinch the nomination, but it is actually impossible for her to do so.No matter how many super delegates actually vote for her. If they vote.

Like the movie War of the Worlds where the Martian invaders were felled by the smallest most simple of things, so to is it with Hillary Clinton,the DNC and their colluding partners in the news media and big money interests behind Clinton (for one simple reason: Sanders cant be bought because of his integrity and Trump can't be bought because of his money).

 And this simple thing that they overlooked that upends all their well planned rigging since January when super delegates,arranged by Clinton and Debby Wasserman-Schultz began coming out the woodwork to make unofficial "announcements" to  make it look like Clinton's lead was bigger than it really was, is right there in the Democratic party rules, the official rules,not some banana republic AP "survey"  to use as a substitute for democracy to shove Hillary Clinton down the throats of Sanders and his voters and  America for that matter, but the official Democratic Party rules of what it takes to nominate a candidate.

Those rules show clearly that the number of pledged delegates in the Democratic party is 4051. The number of super delegates is 712.

What  they forgot because they were so fixated on getting Clinton to 2383, is that 2383 is approximately 60% (58.9% down to decimals) of the 4051 pledged delegate total. Which is what the rules require. But with the primaries over we know that neither Clinton nor Sanders got there. The Clinton camp in collusion with the media have tried to put out the fiction that Clinton will get there using super delegates. But what they forgot is that once super delegates vote its not the 2383 that matters anymore. Because it's not 4051 voting anymore. Add 712 super delegates and it's 4763 voting . And it's still getting 58.9% of the total delegate pool that matters. And Clinton can't get there either even with super delegates.

In almost every case except twice in the last 50 years a nominee has been able to win the approximate 60% of pledged delegates (the approximation is because of what the Democratic Party calls " at large" delegates - neither pledged nor super ) in the primaries. Which is why super delegates have actually only voted once to nominate a candidate and that was 32 years ago in 1984 when the total number of pledged delegates were 1000 fewer than today.

But what those trying to rig the nomination for Clinton with super delegates forgot is that as soon as super delegates actually vote at the convention, if they vote,those 712 super delegates increase that voting pool by 712 to 4763. The point is simple: increase the voting delegate pool and you increase the number of delegates a candidate needs to win the nomination. Because its the percentage of delegates won that counts not the 2383.

Based on Democratic party rules that define a nominee as having to win 2383 of 4051 voting delegates or 58.9%, as soon as super delegates vote and add 712 to the delegate pool a candidate now needs to win 58.9% of 4763 not 4051. And 58.9% of 4763 is 2805. And Clinton can't get there even if all 519 super delegates who came out with "declarations" actually voted for her.

The best Clinton could do if 519 super delegates voted for her which would never happen, is 2738.She'd still be 67 delegates short of what the rules show is the 58.9% needed for the nomination. And no more delegates to be had. Not in Clinton's pocket or under Debby Wasserman-Schultz' dining room table. And again, that's if all 519 super delegates claimed in the AP announcement voted for her.(It should be noted that the final pledged delegate count is up in the air.Clintons reported pledged delegate count after California was estimated at 2026. California is not through counting.Some are reporting a pledged delegate count of 2219 after the DC primary.Clinton did not win 197 delegates from the DC primary so actual delegate counts are imprecise but using the 2219 total gives her the benefit of the doubt.)

Anyone who thinks the nomination can be rigged by claiming that super delegates count when they cast votes at the convention but don't count as part of the overall voting pool ought to think twice.

As they like to say, do the math. Its not who has the most or a simple majority as everyone knows. If that were the case there would never be a need for super delegates as part of the nominating process. Its who gets 58.9% of the delegates. So to reiterate: once super delegates vote and increase the pool to 4763 it is, depending on Clinton's final pledged delegate totals, to quote Robby Mook,Clinton's campaign manager, almost "mathematically impossible" for Hillary Clinton to get enough delegates to win the nomination on either the first or second ballots. And the same is true for Sanders. If Clinton's final pledged delegate totals are 2092 or less all 712 super delegates could vote for her, something that would never happen and Clinton still wouldn't have enough for the nomination.

So if super delegates, who haven't voted to nominate a candidate in 32 years, actually do vote they bring the total voting delegate pool to 4763 and what's needed to nominate is 2805 not 2383.

And no one, especially Debbie Wasserman-Schultz can say " it doesnt work that way" or "that's not how it's done". Neither she nor anyone can say the rules arent the rules and numbers arent the numbers.And neither she nor anyone say "how it's done" since this specific situation has never occurred. Thats why there are rules. And no, it didnt happen in 2008  because super delegates never voted in 2008. A deal was cut between Clinton and Obama before the roll call vote (can anyone say "Secretary of State"?) though Clinton never released her delegates.Obama was nominated in the end by acclimation as part of his deal with Clinton meaning all votes were recorded for him.

The only time in the history of the Democratic party super delegates ever voted to nominate a president was 1984 where Walter Mondale had a 500 delegate lead over Gary Hart with Jesse Jackson in 3rd with another 350 in a total delegate pool that was 1000 less than it is now. Hillary Clinton's pledged delegate lead over Sanders is half of what Mondale's was with 1000+ more delegates in the pool now. It took substantially fewer super delegates in 1984 to get Mondale to what he needed.And he got all of them.

The irrefutable point is,Clinton clinched nothing. The 2383 she and the media are claiming as her having clinched is invalid if the super delegates that brought her to 2383 actually vote. 

What those trying to rig the nomination for Clinton since January didnt count on was Sanders winning as much as he did, winning 22 states outright, tying in four others and in many states beating Clinton by margins so great she looked like a third party candidate winning at times by margins of as many as 60 points.The result was Sanders picking up more than 45% of the pledged delegates. Meaning the most Clinton could ever win in primaries was slightly less than 55% and so could never get to the 2383 or 58.9% of delegates needed. So she needed help.And they thought they could give it to her with anonymous last minute super delegate declarations arranged by Clinton and Debby Wassermsn-Schultz to aid the fraud. They were wrong.

Clinton does not have and likely cannot get with or without super delegates the number she needs to clinch the nomination either on a first ballot or second. Neither can Sanders.

A candidate still needs approximately 60% (or 58.9% down to the last decimal) of whatever the total voting pool is. And with 712 super delegates voting that number is 2805. 

If Democrats and the DNC at the convention try at some point to make some tortured claim that super delegate votes would count towards the original 2383, but somehow don't count as increasing the delegate pool as a way to rig it for Clinton, or if they try and change the rules or re-interpret the rules so that 2383 remains constant no matter the size of the pool to rig the nomination for Clinton they are guaranteed to bring the Democratic party to its knees both in Philadelphia in July and in November.

So to be clear: the AP announcement, the New York Times headline,Clinton the DNC and their allies in the news media who have been part of the collusion trying to claim that she has "won" the nomination were perpetrating a fraud, an attempt at a putsch by Clinton,the DNC and corporate media based on a 2383 number that is no longer what a nominee needs if super delegates vote. Clinton hasnt won a thing. 

What happened on June 6 where the AP falsely proclaimed Clinton had won the nomination based on a "survey" of a handful of anonymous super delegates who said they'd vote for Clinton to get her to the mythical 2383, and then validated by the NY Times and CNN and MSNBC without, in their minds,the need to take a single vote, was not just fraud, it was the most shameful episode in the history of  modern American politics.It was an attempt at the very definition of a  putsch and cheating democracy, Sanders and his 12 million + voters and either trying to get around Democratic party rules or forgetting the simple fact that when you increase the delegate voting pool you increase the number of delegates needed to win. 

It was a bizarre game of "Simon Says" played by the New York Times and other media outlets as a substitute for voting except it was "the AP Says".

And to close any loopholes Debby Wasserman-Schultz or a rules committee might try to use if super delegates vote at the convention,(and remember, they havent voted in 32 years so its no guarantee) they do not vote selectively they vote en masse. It's all or nothing.Once they are asked to vote (they do not automatically vote on the first ballot) all super delegates vote or none do. Anything else and its the Democrats and Hillary Clinton playing "heads I win tails you lose" with Sanders,his voters, Democratic Party rules and  anyone's idea of democracy.

What Clinton, the DNC and the colluding media, the AP, CNN, MSNBC and NY Times tried to pull on June 6th wasn't democracy but a putsch. It was the DNC and Clinton trying to impose their idea of the Divine Right of Kings on the 2016 Democratic nominating process. King George found out how Americans felt about that in Philadelphia in 1776. Hillary Clinton and the DNC will find out,ironically, also in Philadelphia in 2016, if they persist.

So if neither candidate is able to get to the delegates needed on the first or second ballots what happens at the convention?

The  answer is simple. Its how the Democratic party used to nominate a candidate for president for 200+ years before the creation of the much despised super delegates. Barring what many think may be an intervention by the FBI before the convention, Clinton and Sanders will both go to the convention unable to get the requisite number of delegates,pledged and super,needed for the nomination after two ballots (barring mass defections from either side after the first ballot which could happen if in fact there is bad news for Clinton courtesy of the FBI).

It means the nominee would be chosen the old fashioned way, the way Democratic candidates were chosen before super delegates existed in a contested convention: behind the scenes old fashioned  horse trading. That mean each candidate and their surrogates making their pitch to the other's delegates to get them to switch after the first ballot(assuming the DNC recognizes that super delegates voting for Clinton at that point won;t matter and skip the process) ,making arguments, looking to make deals, cajoling, offering compromises, promises, concessions, arm twisting and all the rest to woo delegates. Some delegates will listen some won't, some will listen to their respective leaders, some will take into account any new facts or realities that could make delegates flip from one candidate to the other(Sanders leaves no doubt he would beat Trump where Clinton is very much in doubt) and make up their own minds.A scary prospect for a candidate who tried to get there by rigging the process.

It will be up to each candidate,Sanders and Clinton to do whatever it takes to get enough delegates to switch so someone can get to the number needed. It took 5 ballots at the 1932 convention doing it just that way for Democrats to nominate FDR.And that didn't turn out too badly.

What the outcome of that kind of horse trading at the convention in Philadelphia would be no one knows. Would it be Clinton or Sanders? After the first ballot pledged delegates are free to switch. Super delegates who wouldn't vote on the first ballot are also free to take those phony "declarations" which never officially counted in the first place and dump them. It would then be up to the delegates to decide who they thought the best candidate would be, a true democratic process, something it seems that Clinton and her allies were hoping to avoid.

It would also make great drama as well as finally being democratic because the outcome would be in doubt. But whatever the outcome, it wouldn't be the result of phony super delegates "declarations" that didnt count,voter fraud in at least 6 states, a president intervening on behalf of Clinton in the South while pretending he was staying neutral or a middle of the night putsch Clinton and the news media tried to pull on June 6, ironically the anniversary of D-Day showing  how oblivious they were in hoping to rig a nomination on that day. What mattered was that it needed to be done the day before the California primary to suppress the Sanders vote.

If there is going to be an FBI intervention with Clinton it's going to happen soon, before the convention. If the FBI thinks they have enough to recommend an indictment its hard to believe they would let it go into the convention. If something is going to happen with that it will happen before July 25.

The OIG report didn't help her. Clinton is scheduled to be the last witness called in the FBI investigation but the law requires the FBI must notify her before she appears if her status changes from witness to target. That's because if she becomes a target (based on the FBI deciding they having enough evidence to show that she broke one or more laws) she has the right refuse to appear. It's not an indictment,only the DOJ can do that, but obviously if the FBI notifies her that she has become a target of the investigation its over for Clinton.

If there is no intervention by the FBI then a nominee will emerge from all the horse trading,haggling, arm twisting and deal making at the convention. 

And in the end at least it has the possibility of creating some kind of unity in the Democratic party that is currently impossible since Sanders and his 12 million voters would at least have confidence that the outcome was honest and democratic as opposed to the dirty politics and rigging and fraud that's been going on for Clinton since January.It would be the way Democrats have traditionally nominated a candidate before the advent of not so super super delegates.As was the case with FDR on the 5th ballot in 1932.And with JFK in 1960 who sewed up the nomination and delegates needed by getting Lyndon Johnson on the ticket as his vice president at the convention. Similar strategies may be employed by both Clinton and Sanders to woo delegates. Some may succeed some may not.

Hopefully the DNC will not be so stupid as to try to change the rules or re-interpret the rules in some absurd or tortured way to hand Clinton the nomination on a second ballot anyway by claiming super delegate votes count when they vote but don't count as part of  the voting pool .If they try that magic act the DNC will  be responsible for making Philadelphia look like Chicago 1968.Which it was on its way to becoming anyway.

And that doesn't mean violence. The violence in Chicago in 1968 wasn't caused by the protestors who protested loudly and passionately against the Viet Nam war but were peaceful. A DOJ investigation afterwards concluded the violence was caused solely by the Chicago police in what the DOJ investigation called an out o control "police riot".

The analogy to Chicago 1968 was not about violence but a massive and loud protest and demonstration against Democratic party corruption that will continue past the convention if it isn't stopped in its tracks in Philadelphia.  It would also guarantee no Sanders voter would ever vote for Clinton. And no amount of Democratic kicking and screaming would change that so they could forget unity.

And lest it be overlooked Obama's hands haven't been clean in any of this despite his pretense of acting above the fray. He has been aware of or been a behind the scenes active participant in everything that has gone on since January. As president and the party's leader he controls the DNC and Debby Wasserman-Schultz his hand picked Chair,and she's been carrying out her marching orders from the beginning.Even David Gergen,one of the few honest faces on CNN said as early as February that "it's obvious the DNC is in the tank for Clinton".

Either way, no matter what the final outcome, and no matter who finally gets the nomination, Bernie Sanders and his supporters need to make sure the DNC, Clinton and her Gang That Couldn't Count Straight play by the Democratic Party's own rules. And the rules show that if super delegates vote 2383 isn't enough. And if Clinton or the DNC don't play by the rules, get a federal court to force them to.A court will.

All good reasons Sanders is not going to quit, not going to drop out. Nor should he despite the temper tantrums of some in the news media or those who misrepresent or misunderstand his own words, misreading his statements about stopping Trump as somehow being the same as endorsing Clinton. They aren't .Because there's a  very good chance that before the convention is over when all is said and done,if Democrats are forced to play by their own rules and democracy prevails, Sanders could be the next president. Whether Clinton, dishonest Democrats and super delegates,and a conniving news media and big money interests like it or not.The rules say it can happen. And so may the voters.


Anonymous said...

Your numbers seem to be incorrect.

60% of 4051 pledged delegates = 2431 delegates, not 2383.

2383 delegates is actually 50% of the 4765 total delegates (4051 pledged + 714 unpledged).

Please revise your article with the correct numbers.

60% of 4765 delegates is 2859.

Anonymous said...


Where do you see the rule that 60% of the delegates' votes are required for nomination?
The linked document does not seem to state anything like that.
In fact, it says a majority vote is required, which sounds like 50% to me.

(Page 15 of the document "2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention")
VIII.C.7.b. "A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the presidential candidate. "

Marc Rubin said...

Where do you see the rule that 60% of the delegates' votes are required for nomination? "A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the presidential candidate. "

First things first. 2383 is 58.9% of 4051 pledged delegates which was rounded off to 60% which neither Clinton nor Sanders were able to get. The Democratic party along with pledged delegates won in primaries also have a designation of "At large delegates" and they are not as stable as those won through votes in the primaries and can be fluid.So the total can be slightly less than 4051 depending on the number of at large and if they vote or remain neutral for a time making the 60% a reliable percentage. At the very least 2383 of all 4051 if they vote is 58.9%.

As for the "majority shall be required" you are misreading that section and misunderstanding it in context of the entire document. It does not say "a simple majority" which you are implying it does. It doesnt. A simple majority would be 50.1%. If all it took was a simple majority super delegates wouldnt exist. The last time super delegates voted in 1984 Mondale finished the primaries with 1606 delegates to Gary Hart's 1160, almost a 500 delegate lead and more than 50% of the total. If all that was needed was a simple majority super delegates wouldnt have had to vote to get Mondale to the percentage he needed."Majority" is not the same as "simple majority"

It's not a "simple majority" The 2383 of 4051 tells you how much of a percentage of a majority is needed.

Marc Rubin said...

"60% of 4051 pledged delegates = 2431 delegates, not 2383.

2383 delegates is actually 50% of the 4765 total delegates (4051 pledged + 714 unpledged)."

The 2383 total of 4051 available pledged delegates is 58.9% which I rounded off to 60% Since as explained above to another commenter,the Democratic Party has a designation of "at large" delegates which are not super delegates and not traditional pledged.These "at large" delegates are awarded during State conventions and can be fluid. If fewer "at large" delegates vote the 2383 or 58.9% would indeed reach 60% of pledged delegates won in primaries. In any event in no case is the number of pledged delegates needed to win the nomination less than 2383 or at least 58.9% if all 4051 delegates vote,which neither candidate has.

As for 2383 being 50% of 4763 that doesnt need revising it was made very clear in the article itself as proof that 2383 wouldnt be nearly enough if super delegates vote since it would only be 50% of the total 4763. The article made that clear and pointed out that no one could argue that 50% of the votes in a two person race would be enough. It defies logic. So 2383 of pledged delegates wasnt reached by either candidate and 2383 is not enough if super delegates vote.

Anonymous said...

"2383 is not enough if super delegates vote."

If only a simple majority of greater than 50% of the delegates is required to win the nomination, then 2383 would indeed be enough, even when including the super delegates in the total. That's the only number and rule that I've come across in the news and media.

You are claiming that around 60% is needed. I have not seen that number in the document "2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention" in your included link. I looked through the relevant sections best as I could but I did not see it. But anyways, to summarize, and correct me if I misunderstood, you are claiming that the "majority" as mentioned in the rules book is not a "simple" majority but rather a larger fraction than one-half, i.e., around 60%.

I am wishing that you are right but without any confirmation of the actual rules from an official source or publication, I think it is giving false hope to people, to present this as an actual fact.

Anonymous said...

I also understand your point regarding Mondale needing superdelegates to get him to the magic number highly suggesting that the magic number is greater than 50% of the total. Still, it would be nice to have some sort of official confirmation of this. Know anyone who can back up your claim?

Anonymous said...

Mondale's 1606 delegates vs Hart's 1160 means Mondale had 58% of the delegates, assuming there weren't any other delegates for other candidates such as Rev. Jesse Jackson.

Anonymous said...

tdraicer: Just go away. Seriously, for your own good-you are just making a fool of yourself at this point, and it is a sad spectacle for those of us who used to read your blog with interest.

Hillary won, she won fairly, she will be the nominee, and almost certainly the next President. Rational people have already moved on to the real battle against Trump. And those who have not, only demonstrate they are not rational.

Anonymous said...

Rational people look at information past the end of their nose. I'm happy to read this information! Now don't be scared of different information than what you already have. The mark of an educated mind is to be able to entertain a thought or idea without having to accept it. Embrace it. Don't be sad and pathetic like the majority of minions walking around bumping into each other.

Marc Rubin said...

"Rational people look at information past the end of their nose. I'm happy to read this information"

Unfortunately it seems those who ignore facts and information,are not rational, are always scared and can be described as pathetic all went into journalism where they were hired by like minded people.