Friday, December 11, 2015

Sanders landslides Clinton in 3 Democratic Straw Polls.

No doubt the headline is either going to come as a shock to many Democrats especially Clinton supporters or they arent going to believe it and write it off as something  invalid that can be just ignored.

Well, okay, if you want to.

But, a Democratic web site that's been around since 2003 as been conducting straw polls on Democratic candidates for president. It's not some fly by night political site and there is no ax to grind.

Unlike the polls that use a sample of 500 people, (Quinnipac) none of whom by the way can ever be verified as not being aardvarks much less actual voters, while clearly not scientific, the number of people casting votes in the straw poll are considerable. And the results no matter what you think of the validity of the polls, still come as a shock. To some. But not all. 

The national polls are just that --  national extrapolations based on small random samples from all over the country  with no way of knowing if they are Democrat, Republican, Independent, if they've ever voted at all, will vote or will vote in a Democratic primary.

It can be argued the same is true for the straw poll at Democrats. com. But what no one can argue against are the raw numbers which speak for themselves. Which seem to reflect, if not political science, passion.

The most recent Quinnipac  national poll shows Clinton beating Sanders 60-35 based on a sample of 550 people nationwide. The Democrats. com straw poll results are just about opposite. CNN which everyone knows are the most unreliable and rigged polls with the lowest standards in polling also have Clinton with an almost 2-1 lead. 

The results of the Democrats. com straw poll conducted between 10/3-10/9:

From  155,111 votes cast:
Bernie Sanders, 50% Clinton 21%, 17% either Clinton or Sanders. The rest was divided between Biden, O'Malley et al.

The second poll conducted 10/14-10/19:

From 91,082 votes cast:
Sanders 49%  Clinton 32% and 14% saying either.

In the third straw poll conducted 11/6-11/12:

From 126,121 votes cast:
Sanders 46% Clinton 32% with either getting 17%.

Even if unscientific and the possibility of some ballot stuffing ( though ballot stuffing could be just as possible for Clinton as Sanders) the numbers are still unexpected. Though possibly predictable because many of Clinton's recent positions have seemed to have a new found loyalty to Obama's failed presidency and may be the result of the Clinton campaign making a serious political miscalculation.

The landslide numbers for Sanders over Clinton in the straw polls may have deep roots.

Clinton seems to have changed her views recently to be more in keeping with Obama and has been praising what most Democrats know is a failed presidency. It could be a calculated political decision thinking that praising Obama and not just defending but embracing his presidency is going to go over well with most mainstream Democratic voters. Its not.

 The Clinton camp seems to be totally oblivious to a lot of  palpable disgust most Democrats --  Democrats in congress and Democratic voters feel towards Obama. And for very good reasons.

Obama's sell out of healthcare reform to the insurance companies by agreeing to drop the public option which became known as Obamacare is something Clinton has been enthusiastically embracing. Democratic voters do not.  And it's singularly responsible for Democrats getting wiped out of the House in 2010 ( as I predicted it would months before the 2010 election if the public option was dropped) and again in the senate in 2014 which I also predicted. Obamacare has been a total failure in helping the people healthcare reform was supposed to help the most - the 35 -40 million uninsured, 97% of whom are still uninsured 2 years into Obamacare because they can't afford the insane premiums of even the cheapest policies.  Which is what happens when you let the insurance companies write the bill. Which Obama did. 

It's probably safe to assume the vast majority of the 35 million who are still uninsured and who will now face stiff financial penalties for not buying the junk forced on them by Obamacare are Democratic voters. 

Obamacare has also been a complete failure at the second thing healthcare reform was supposed to do - lower the obscene cost of healthcare and insurance for people who have it . Instead premiums and healthcare costs keep rising thanks to Obama's dropping of the public option. 

Sanders is campaigning on replacing Obamacare with a Medicare for all type program. 

On Wall Street,  8 figure a year bank executives who admitted to criminal fraud which caused the financial crisis were allowed by the Obama administration to buy their way out of prison by agreeing to record fines that didn't even require them to use their own money -- in other words Wall Street criminals -- real criminals not rhetorical criminals were allowed to get off scott free.  And that isnt going over well with Democratic voters either. That is in contrast to Sanders  constant attacks on Wall Street.

And then  there is Obama's terrible judgement with Isis and his failed foreign policies and now his grudging acknowledgement that its going to take U.S. ground forces (with other countries) to defeat Isis so is starting to deploy them in dribs and drabs. There was Clinton's own statement after the Paris attacks supporting Obama's now defunct Isis policy of not sending ground troops when she said "It's not our fight". Which didn't sound too good to begin with and is even worse after San Bernadino. And Clinton's staunch defense of Obama policy of never sending U.S. ground troops to destroy Isis has not only been undercut by Obama's decision to send commandos and special forces but almost 60% of Americans now support the use of U.S. ground troops to destroy Isis. 

Praising or supporting Obama's weak, tepid, disengaged  and failed foreign policy from the Ukraine to Syria and Isis  and the failing Iran deal doesn't figure to win many votes outside of Daily Kos. 

Yet Clinton has embraced all of it and almost incredulously said Obama doesn't get enough credit for the economy improving.

Clinton's embrace of Obama policies, if that's how she really feels is misguided and out of step with mainstream Democrats.  Her positions on Isis, Edward Snowden, Obamacare, the economy, and foreign policy all are embracing failed Obama policies  which doesn't seem to acknowledge them as failures and instead look politically calculated.

The term "Democratic strategist" since 2000 has been an oxymoron and if Clinton is taking bad political advice to embrace Obama and not run from him because she thinks she has to appeal to Obama supporters it will play right into Republican hands of trying to portray her as a third Obama term which, whether she realizes it or not, or likes it or not, nobody wants. Nobody. And that includes the majority of Democrats. 

Which may very well explain Sanders swamping her in the straw poll at


Alessandro Machi said...

Honestly, Clinton supporters are the true blue collar worker, the ones that own small businesses and don't know how to work a computer. I'm serious. The Millennials are all over that site and they are amping up the vote for Sanders.

Marla said...

Hillary is between a rock and a hard place regarding Obama. Progressives (i.e., tea party left) make excuses for him in the comments that I have read in the NY Times. It's easier to blame the Republicans who have made it difficult for Obama than to blame Obama for his lack of resolve. Many openly say that they don't trust her because she changes positions to suit the moment.

If she openly criticizes Obama, then the TP-L will say she isn't progressive. Then it will be easier for Obama to quietly undermine her because she isn't going to be perceived as continuing his "legacy."

Marc Rubin said...

"The Millennials are all over that site and they are amping up the vote for Sanders."

Could be. No one really knows. But the numbers speak for themselves. The question always is who will vote in primaries.

Marc Rubin said...

"If she openly criticizes Obama, then the TP-L will say she isn't progressive. Then it will be easier for Obama to quietly undermine her because she isn't going to be perceived as continuing his "legacy."

Youre right about what you wrote, but Clinton is making a calculated political decision to embrace Obama's failed presidency and so I can't say I have sympathy for her position. Also the Tea Party Left has no real influence on anyone outside their immediate circle unlike the Right Wing Tea Party who can, has and do influence outcomes and votes among conservatives in the Republican party.

Very few real thinking liberals or informed Democratic leaning voters fall for the propaganda of the Tea Party Left at ThinkProgress, MoveOn, or Daily Kos. Their influence with the great majority of Democratic voters is nothing.That is where Clinton is making a big mistake and miscalculation. Unless she actually embraces Obama's failures because she believes in them and wants to make them her own. Then she will be in big trouble politically.