The debacle in Debaltseve: more death and destruction and the debacle of Obama policy in Ukraine.

The heart of the on going conflict between Russian backed rebels, Ukraine and the U.S. and Europe  is this:  hot air from Obama, Merkle and Hollande against the super heated air from Putin's missiles, tanks and heavy artillery as the above image from Debaltseve showing Russian Grad missiles proves. Guess who's been winning? And a recent poll shows the Russian people give Putin an 86% approval rating. The sanctions are working, huh. 

The fake cease fire negotiated in Minsk which Obama had hoped would let him off the hook without having to do anything meaningful, didn't simply fall apart, it never was in the first place. It was as much a failure as Obama's policies of sanctions to stop Putin. And the failure of his policies in general in microcosm since they are all based on the same approach. 

Separtist rebels using Grad missilies, tanks, heavy artillery and troops sent by Putin never stopped firing on the town of Debaltseve even after the cease fire was supposed to take effect  and eventually rebels took the railway hub driving outgunned Ukrainian troops from the town. Ironically the battle after the cease fire  was the single bloodiest battle in the entire 10 month war.

Five days after the rebel capture of Debaltseve, the rebel offensive has   continued  against the strategic city of Mariupol and the village of  Kurakhovo . And Russian tanks and troops were seen as late as Friday,  continuing to cross the border into Ukraine to bolster the separatists 5 days after Moscow agreed to a cease fire in a conflict they claim they are not party to. 

It's clear Putin knows he has Obama and the West on their heels and back pedaling and is pressing for as much territory as Obama will allow which if history is any example would probably include Brooklyn except Putin would face a lot tougher opposition in Brooklyn than he would face with Obama.

Putin hasnt just been laughing in Obama's face for year  he keeps spitting in it. And Obama's response has been for the most part,  "does anybody have a tissue"? The best the Obama administration seems to be able to do in the face of Putin's military offensive even after a cease fire is Kerry calling it  " a land grab" and "completely unacceptable". Not just "unacceptable" mind you, but to show just how tough Obama is it's "completely unacceptable" which is more diplomatic-speak for 

" does anyone have a tissue"?

 Its become obvious to everyone that Putin's cease fire proposal had one aim -- to allow the rebels to take more Ukrainian territory by force and essentially say, " what are you going to do about it"? The U.S. and European answer  so far  has been "Nothing".

What was put out for domestic consumption is that Obama is "considering" sending defensive weapons to Ukraine. He could have just as easily used the word "fiddling over". 

The result is the  "stupid stuff " Obama continues to do based on  his organizing principle exposed by Hillary Clinton of " don't stupid stuff" . Which is why Netanyahu is concerned about Iran. 

It was Obama who oversaw and practically directed the surrender of Crimea to Russia because was afraid of a confrontation with Putin. Putin knew it and kept taking what he wanted. It was Obama who told the interim government in Kiev at the time  " don't do anything to provoke Putin" after Outin put 40,000 troops on the Russian -Ukraine border. Which led to the morale deflating images of the Ukrainian military surrendering to Russian backed rebels in Crimea . And gave Putin the go ahead to take more. Which he's been doing. 

 Obama's response to Putin's continued use of Russian weapons and troops to grab as much of Ukraine as he can has been " the sanctions are working" . This is the substitute for refusing to live up to the 1995 U.S.- Ukraine pact that guaranteed Ukraine's defense and sovereignty in return for giving up 2000 of their soviet made nuclear weapons. 

So Putin's Russian backed separatist forces, ignoring what everyone knew was a phony cease fire agreement in the first place, has continued to press the offensive to take even more of Ukraine's territory having no fear or concern over Obama's so far empty threat to send arms to Ukraine.

In something so laughable it sounded like a line from Dr. Strangelove, the Russians are also objecting to the presence of UN peace keepers to monitor the cease fire claiming that peace keeping would violate the terms of the cease fire. No response from the U.S. 

The debacle in Debaltseve and Ukraine in general is Obama's policies collapsing under the weight of his own weakness while he continues to look for ways to avoid standing up to Putin.  Which Putin knows and is what is really behind Obama's refusal to send much needed weapons to Ukraine. 

Obama and his advisors  still keep peddling the story that the sanctions are working. They are not working not even against Russian bus drivers, car salesman, office workers and cleaning ladies to whom they are targeted as Putin's 86% job approval rating shows . Obama has been attacking credit cards while the Putin backed rebels attack towns and cities killing thousands.

From the beginning Obama's response to Ukraine's request for weapons was to send them what a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine called " camping equipment". Obama's idea of " don't do stupid stuff". And the consequences are obvious. 

If Obama had any real decision making ability or grasp of effective policy he'd be sending arms to Ukraine right now. First as a message to Putin and the rebels that the party is over. And secondly, even if the cease fire manages to hold, the weapons Obama would send would be a deterrent to Putin  to start the war again by sending in more arms and troops. Facing equal military weapons against his own forces  is the only price Putin is not willing to pay since it would mean heavy Russian casualties and the destruction of military equipment. 

With the weapons they need and without Russian troops Ukraine would clearly defeat the rebels and were actually on the verge of doing so in Donetsk when Putin sent in reenforcents to stop it.

 If Ukraine had those weapons Kiev could demand that all territory taken by rebels after the cease fire be given back.  If not then armed with U.S. weapons Ukraine could go back on the offensive and retake the territory .

Instead  Obama, Hollande and Merkle offer the usual empty talk of appeasement characterized by false cliches like  "there is no military solution only a diplomatic one. "

When another country uses military force to take what doesn't belong to them, the only response is military. It's called national defense. 

 To say otherwise is appeasement. That voice was clearly evident when Merkle talked about the unacceptablity of Russia trying to take territory in eastern Ukraine that  "Ukraine considers  to be theirs" . Considers?  The way Germany considers that Berlin belongs  to Germany? Why is Merkle even suggesting that there is any controversy or real dispute over whose territory has been invaded and  is  being occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine? 

The solution in Ukraine right now  has been and is a military one, which Obama and Merkle and Hollande are trying to avoid. The solution is to stand up to Putin arming the separatists who without Russia's troops and weapons would be militarily defeated. This is what makes Obama's excuse that giving the Ukrainian military weapons wouldnt do any good since  "they couldn't win a war with Russia".  Ukraine is at war with the rebels. There is no full scale war with Russia. And by saying Ukraine would lose a full scale war with Russia  is Obama signaling to Putin if he did launch a full scale war the U.S.  would do nothing? Maybe this is why Gdnerdl Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commader of NATO recently said the U.S. Is not doing enough to stand up to Putin. 

Ukraine does not have to defeat Russia. Putin would not officially invade Ukraine with Russian troops. Ukraine needs to defeat the rebels. So Obama's most recent rationale for not sending weapons is irrationale. 

One other false reason Obama gives for not sending weapons to Ukraine is that those weapons could fall into the hands of the rebels. Which shows there are people in the White House either not living on the planet earth or are so used to lying and getting away with it they will throw out anything they believe the news media will let them get away with which they almost always do.

The rebels don't  need American weapons. They are being supplied with all the tanks, heavy artillery and Grad missiles they want  by Russia. And it is both insulting and a lie to assume the Ukrainian  military would lose against the rebels when they were on the verge of defeating them even without U.S. weapons. 

It's the same argument Obama used against arming the moderate  Syrian rebels which led to the rise of Isis. 

While Obama and the West keep saying there is no military solution in Ukraine there is one person who thinks there is. Vladimir Putin. And until Obama and his so called advisors are ready to admit that and decide whether the U.S.  is going to stand up to it or be cowed by it and force Putin to back down Putin and the rebels will not stop.