Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Telling Obama's fortune from a cookie.
"Compromise is always wrong if it means sacrificing principle."
I thought about Obama's saying the disastrous deal he made on raising the debt ceiling was the nature of compromise, then blaming the Republicans for refusing to compromise and it occurred to me at that moment that there are people writing fortunes for Chinese fortune cookies who know more about what it takes to be president than Obama.
In the New York Times on Sunday, no less a persona than Warren Buffet made the case for raising taxes on the wealthy. He said it was essential. In every real budget compromise since the 1980's, both spending cuts and tax increases were part of the package. It was only Obama who agreed to a deal or "compromise" that consisted of spending cuts only leaving the burden of reducing the deficit falling on the middle class.
Hopefully the DNC and congressional Democrats won't need a fortune cookie to realize theirs and Obama's future because Obama has no chance of being reelected. Even if he wasn't the worst president in the history of the Democratic party, even if he wasn't the most blatantly dishonest, most duplicitous, and untrustworthy, even if he wasn't completely lacking in principles and convictions, even if he didn't have a 13 year history of accomplishing nothing which continued into his presidency, adding to his disasteous deal on the debt ceiling there is still history to be reckoned with which shows that no incumbent president with unemployment over 8% has ever been reelected for a second term.
And every economist of every stripe will tell you that no matter what policies are enacted, no matter how the economy comes back assuming it does, no matter what progress is made, no matter what positive signs may crop up, there is absolutely no chance that unemployment which now stands at 9.2% can get under 8% by November of 2012.
Add to that the total disgust so many Democrats feel towards Obama and his presidency, the discontent for all the things he failed to do but could have done when he had the largest congressional majority of any president in 60 years, all the promises reneged on, all the campaign speeches that were just what they seemed to be at the time -- empty slogans -- and there is no chance Obama can get another four years. The very idea is preposterous. In a recent poll in New York State Obama received only 49% of the vote against an unnamed Republican. His approval rating is down to 42% nationally.
The only chance for Democrats now is that the DNC and congressional Democrats start opening up the field to Democratic challengers to Obama in the primaries and let Democratic voters decide if they want Obama to be the nominee in 2012. You don't need a fortune cookie to know what the outcome of that will be.
But if the powers that be at the DNC won't allow challengers to Obama, if they try and repress free exercise of the democratic process the way they did in 2008 when they tried everything they could to stifle Hillary Clinton's campaign, ( with the attendant results) if they try to repress the process in the name of phony party unity as they did in 2008, then it wont be fortune cookies Democrats will be reading in 2012. It will be tea leaves.
UPDATE: Three days after this post, a new Gallup poll published today shows Obama now at an all time low not only in his overall job approval rating but in just about every other sub category that was polled. During the three day span of August 11-13 Obama's approval rating polled dropped to 39%. His weekly tracking number recovered slightly but only to 41%. Hopefully congressional Democrats and the DNC wont need fortune cookies to know what to do and will simply read the handwriting on the wall. If they don't they really do deserve to get what will clearly be the case in 2012 which is to lose. Again.