Friday, May 9, 2008


Obama's campaign has let it be known that they are planning to declare victory on May 20th. What is so stupefying about this is that in one political decision Obama is proving why he is inadequate and unsuitable as both a nominee for President and for the office itself. As if his opponents needed any more ammunition it is one more thing that confirms people's worst instincts about him and shows he is a disaster waiting to happen for the Democratic party in the general election.

Yesterday The Obama Bus Company (you dont ride in it, you get thrown under it) rolled into Washington, and along with Alice Palmer, (the first person Obama threw under the bus to further his political ambitions in Chicago in 1995) the 3 million voters of Florida and Michgian, Jeremiah Wright, and his own grandmother, Obama threw the entire Democratic Party and 215 super delegates under the bus.

But that sound you hear might be the bus backfiring.

You would think Obama might have learned something from the fiasco that has been the Bush Presidency but obviously not. Obama has proved going back to his days in Chicago that he is the kind of politician that puts his own ambitions ahead of everything else,( see the Chicago Tribune story about the bus' first hit and run victim). But now, like many politicians who are blinded by their own ambitions, many who are now contributing to society by making license plates, he may have gone too far.

First the hypocrisy is stupefying. He and his campaign has tried to justify clamping their hands over the mouths of 3 million voters in Florida and Michigan by screaming "the rules are the rules". That argument is one I took apart a week ago here, but its the one he makes. So the candidate who claims the rules are the rules is prepared to throw the Democratic Party, the DNC, the Democratic Rules Committee and every delegate and Democratic voter who didnt vote for him ( roughly half the Democratic party), not to mention all the uncommitted super delegates, under the bus ( its getting crowded under there isnt it?) by declaring victory before he has the 2025 delegates the rules says he needs. I dont think anyone knew that when Barack Obama said he was rejecting the politics of the past he was talking about elections.

It is the kind of arrogance and stupidity that is reminiscent of Bush's Mission Accomplished.But its a good example of how Obama and his ambitions are what drives him and takes precedence over everything else. Including anything resembling good judgement. And this time it might be a matter of live by the sword, die by the sword.

Because of this proposed May 20th announcement, Obama now runs a very big and very real risk of alienating super delegates who have not cast their votes and who are going to resent Obama (justifiably) for essentially trying to negate their vote, telling them they simply dont matter anymore. Taking a politician's vote for granted, ( or any voter's vote for that matter) is the fastest way for a politician on the rise to end up feeling as if "Like A Rolling Stone" was written about him.

Secondly, the short sighted arrogance of this is obviously blinding Obama to the reality that in arrogantly trying to preempt the process with this stunt, it will guarantee both he and the Democrats a landslide loss should super delegates decide to uphold the tradition of how Democrats lose elections and give him the nomination, especially if he is not the choice of the will of the people when you include Florida and Michigan.

Pulling this stunt before all the votes are counted, before all the delegates are counted and before the Florida and Michigan mess is resolved and before the two primaries where Clinton stands to landslide Obama on May 20th, will absolutely guarantee that 90% of Clinton voters and supporters, a little more than half the Democratic Party, will not vote for Obama in the general election. Their anger and resentment at his unilateral attempt to short circuit the process and bully himself into the nomination, already at the boiling point over his tactics and dishonesty, will guarantee that he will lose 90% of her supporters.If there was ever a political guarantee that is it. Exit polls show that Clinton voters have said they will in no way vote for Obama in the general election. If 50% are saying it, 75% are thinking it and probably 90% will act on it. If Obama is the nominee because Florida and Michigan were not counted, half the Democratic Party will not support him. And there is not a super delegate in the party with even a shred of political common sense that doesn't know it.

If anyone believes the nonsense that if Obama is the nominee carrying a big red asterisk on his back, that Clinton supporters are going to come together with Obama supporters to support him, then they are out of touch with reality, ( which could explain their support of Obama). Its never going to happen and Democrats can thank Mr. Unity for being the most divisive figure in the history of Democratic politics and maybe the most underhanded politician since Richard Nixon.

Obama's stunt, if he ever became the nominee, guarantees that a McCain/Obama contest will make Reagan/Mondale look like a squeaker. Half the support of Democratic voters will be gone and given the fact that the bulk of his primary support has come in southern states the Democrats havent carried in 40 years because of his getting 90% of the African American vote and his other major source of support has been in mid west caucus states where 11,000 people who have the time and inclination to show up haggle for 3 hours resulting in a primary win in states the Democrats havent won in 40 years, the Democrats are looking at an electoral disaster.

And one other factor that Obama has so shortsightedly dismissed. Because of the anger and resentment fostered by this stunt and his divisive campaign, Obama would guarantee that he would not get a dime in contributions from Clinton voters or supporters for the general election. As it is now, the DNC is looking at losing donations from Clinton supporters threatening to cut them off if Florida and Michigan arent seated. Obama has been successful raising money for the primary campaign but it will not be enough for a general election. There are some rumors that a lot of his money has come from Republicans who have in stealth fashion made the contributions in small amounts through Republicans around the country who want Obama as the nominee against McCain. But whether that is true or not, with half the Democratic party essentially boycotting him, he will have an impossible time raising enough money for the general election since he needs the support of the entire Democratic Party and he wont get it.

What the Democratic Party,the super delegates and the DNC have to look at now is whether they will heed the adage that those who dont learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Because if Barrack Obama gets the Democratic nomination, especially if Clinton ends the primary season winning the popular vote (including the Florida and Michigan totals) and is able to claim that she represents the true will of the people, and she either makes the delegate count close (statistically insignificant) or wins it outright including Florida and Michigan, Barack Obama's Mission Accomplished declaration on May 20th, if ratified by super delegates, is going to turn the Democratic Party into Baghdad.


Anonymous said...

Yes. If Obama somehow manages to pull this, I predict that McCain's campaign contributions are going to skyrocket right after the Democratic Convention.

YAB said...

I dislike Obama more and more every day, but I suspect this is a trial balloon (even Obama can't be this arrogant and this dumb). It won't fly. Obama will deny he ever planned to do it. His supporters will blame it on Hillary.

countmyvote said...

But..if Hillary has huge wins in WV, Kentucky (leads in polls seem to be holding) and pulls it out in Oregon, BO will be a laughing stock. Very Risky. I agree, this is a trial balloon.

Anonymous said...

Say no to Hussein.

Hillary08or12 said...

The arrogance of Obama and his supporters is unbelievable. He has made me question him to the utmost as those of extreme arrogance do not listen to others, nor do they accept responsibility or recognize when they are at fault. Scary things for a president. Declaring victory before the end of the primaries in 3 weeks is disgusting, even if it is to just test the waters. Superdelegates are seriously considering Hillary's very valid argument, sadly, I'm afraid race-wars will be a greater fear for them than losing the election in Nov. Especially when the convention will be held the same week as the anniversary of the "I have a dream" speech. Obama's race in the end will indeed help him. I blame it all on Mark Penn and his stupidity thinking Super Tuesday would end it all so not even making a bid in the following 10 states. You cost us big Penn. Hope it ends your political career.

Anonymous said...

I have been somewhat holding my contributions to Clinton, thinking I need to contribute in the general election; now that Hillary is unlike to win, I just maxed it out.

BTW, from now on, I don't need to worry about contribution money to Dem party for the rest of my life - of course, except if Hillary runs again in 2012. I think most definitely she will.

Anonymous said...

Hillary the Scapegoat?


I totally agree with you that Obama is the most divisive figure in Democrat history; I also totally agree with you that he will lose big time. However, even though from Day 1, Obama had no chance whatsoever, as indicated by the 7 big states and based on historical odds, Obama supporters are going to blame everything onto Hillary, which may hurt her in 2012.

Any thought about that? Thanks.

MDR said...

My first thought is that it isnt over even Obama wants you to think it is. Clinton is behind in the popular vote by 0.56% before the W.Va primary and behindby 99 delegates with 215 pledged and 200 super delegates to be picked up.Those totals include Florida and Michigan. She is going to win the popular vote and has every chance to win the delegae with Florida and Michigan. So dont worry about 2012 yet. If she wins the popular vote and doesnt get the nomination it will insure McCain wins so Im not so sure its over yet.

Anonymous said...

I love you and I thank you for being so correct in your assessment. I cannot identify with Obama at all. H makes no sense to me, and he is certaily not like any Democrat I have ever known.

Clinton or McCain- there is no other option. I am sorry he was not vetted sooner- but better late than never.
Go Hillary! Go!