tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post748082060141049635..comments2024-03-07T02:17:34.434-08:00Comments on Tom In Paine: 13 keys that make Obama's re-election defeat a certainty.Marc Rubinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746456438052849715noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-42770632190019774732011-09-18T20:58:50.493-07:002011-09-18T20:58:50.493-07:00Well, we'll see in November of 2012, won't...Well, we'll see in November of 2012, won't we?Blue Jeanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317338970345797530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-66680482611082237512010-11-06T11:11:15.610-07:002010-11-06T11:11:15.610-07:00"You need to read Lichtman more carefully. By..."You need to read Lichtman more carefully. By his own definitions of what constitutes policy failures and successes, he's right and you're wrong."<br /><br />I read Lichtman very carefully. The problem is you didnt. Nothing regarding policy failures is in his formula, simply circumstances that he believes based on their being true or false will constitute an incumbent victory or defeat and its his analysis of those circumstances and his giving "true" values when they were clearly either "false" or too soon to tell that makes his conclusions totally wrong.<br /><br />Its actually you AND Lichtman who are wrong and I am right.Marc Rubinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10746456438052849715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-36724958682844036842010-11-06T09:31:53.340-07:002010-11-06T09:31:53.340-07:00You need to read Lichtman more carefully. By his o...You need to read Lichtman more carefully. By his own definitions of what constitutes policy failures and successes, he's right and you're wrong. And, as it's his model, his definitions matter.<br /><br />Obviously it's too soon to know for sure on a few. The economy not being on an upswing is the real joker; that would (in Lichtman's complete model) doom him for sure, as no incumbent party has ever won re-election when the economy was in recession. But "slow growth" is not recession.bratschewursthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00888098627438153726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-51758439337973754712010-08-06T21:11:55.337-07:002010-08-06T21:11:55.337-07:00From your mouth to g-d's ear MarcFrom your mouth to g-d's ear MarcSuenoreply@blogger.com