tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post4066566359371907072..comments2024-03-07T02:17:34.434-08:00Comments on Tom In Paine: THE NEW MATH FOR CLINTON, AN OLD HORSE RACE FOR OBAMAMarc Rubinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746456438052849715noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-51872008115673206932008-06-05T02:37:00.000-07:002008-06-05T02:37:00.000-07:00Obama made history by stealing votes in the presid...Obama made history by stealing votes in the presidential primary...<BR/><BR/>Stealing votes doesn't look very presidential...<BR/><BR/>not in Zimbabwe... not in the United States...<BR/><BR/>Americans will fight Obama every step of the way...<BR/><BR/>Nobody is going to sabotage, destroy or taint our democratic process...<BR/><BR/>We are united under the true democratic principles of our great country...<BR/><BR/>Change is coming, this time our votes are going to count!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-63455638531988262722008-05-26T00:52:00.000-07:002008-05-26T00:52:00.000-07:00Obama may be able to game the Democratic nominatin...Obama may be able to game the Democratic nominating system, but you cannot cheat the electoral college. Proportioning delegates the same for a win of 10,000 votes vs a win for Hillary of 100,000 votes is preposterous! People will not vote for Obama as the more they know about him, the greater their resolve to work AGAINST him. The media bias won't last long once the Republicans start on him. Mark my words - Rezko, Odinga, Auchi, Ayers, and Wright will be household names. Corruptions, scandals, dirty-money, patriotism questions, as well as terrorist connections, will destroy Obama, and rightly so. You can't fool people forever. The media might pick a Black man over a woman because of the misogyny inherent in America that makes sexism more tolerable publicly than racism, but I don't think I have to tell anyone that racism still exists and they will always choose the old white man over Obama, especially when they start revealing the stories they know about his accepting dirty former lobbyists money as well as known decades-long relationships with domestic and foreign terrorists. The tape of Michelle Obama ranting against "whitey" in Wright-fashion won't help either. I predict a Dukakis style loss, if not McGovern as Obama has pissed off so many demographic voting groups it's unbelievable! His "bitter" comments, his campaign's writing off Latinos as less important than Black voters, his sexist campaign and remarks at Hillary and her supporters have all already created coalitions working to defeat Obama via voting for McCain - of whom they view as patriotic (unlike Obama), and who won't sell out our country to terrorists or domestic radicals. These groups include Clinton Supporters Count Too (a group dedicated to ruining Obama's chances in OH, PA, MI, and FL (important swing states) - not that they will have to work very hard as all polls show Obama will lose these by big margins to McCain, and this is before McCain has even ran any negative ads against Obama). Even Hillary on the ticket will not change their minds. They will not vote for such a highly unqualified and inexperienced candidate with no significant accomplishments or leadership experience. They put country before party every time and feel much safer with McCain, a former veteran whom they view as a moderate (whether that's true or not is beside the point as perception is reality). Obama may win the nomination by gaming the system, but he cannot win the general election. In the midst of battle, people too often fail to see the forest from the trees. It is not winning the nomination that is the ultimate goal, it is winning the white house in Nov. Remember that and vote accordingly superdelegates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-1732828935721177042008-05-21T15:20:00.000-07:002008-05-21T15:20:00.000-07:00A tally that excludes the results of four states a...A tally that excludes the results of four states and doesn't bother to mention that fact is much less accurate than one that includes professional estimates of those four states. Be reasonable. We likely won't ever have final vote totals from some of those states because thats not how their elections are run... so will you just never count them? Their votes are meaningless?<BR/><BR/>"Given that they are caucuses and not actual primaries where the number of people who participate is in the tens of thousands not millions or even hundreds of thousands, the actual figures whenever they are released are not going to change the main point and they are not going to substantially change the final figures."<BR/><BR/>You say it won't change the final total, but according to RCP's estimates, it's more than 110,000 votes in Obama's favor. That's quite a lot of votes.<BR/><BR/>Finally, you've actually proved why the popular vote is such an inaccurate metric. Yes, fewer people vote in caucuses. Therefore, the popular vote out of that state is much less representative, quantitatively, of a state's support for a candidate. It massively undercuts caucus states' influence in the overall total. That is why we have delegates, which are awarded proportionally.<BR/><BR/>All this was known before the primary started. No one complained when Bill Clinton or Kerry won caucuses. Hillary, however, did not run an effective campaign in caucus states, and so she pushes the "popular vote" argument which punishes Obama, and punishes caucus states, for Clinton's miscalculation.<BR/><BR/>If this were a general election, where every state votes the same way, and every vote is counted, I agree the popular vote argument holds sway. But this primary is not like that--some states held primaries, some held caucuses, hell--some had both, some states counted popular votes some states didn't. That makes it a VERY tough call.<BR/><BR/>So, for the very inaccuracy of the popular vote, no, I don't think it should hold much weight, especially in comparison to delegates, the only metric for which the system is designed.<BR/><BR/>"you sound very worried"<BR/><BR/>Please. I'm not worried at all, because the "<I>but if you count the vote THIS way...</I>" nature of the Clinton campaign's only remaining argument is obvious. I am simply trying to argue this on your terms.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-24830878365507732192008-05-21T14:19:00.000-07:002008-05-21T14:19:00.000-07:00"Your ad hominem attacks do nothing to bolster you..."Your ad hominem attacks do nothing to bolster your argument"<BR/><BR/>My argument speaks for itself.<BR/><BR/>"Real Clear Politics has perfectly reasonable estimates of the popular vote in those four states"<BR/><BR/>Thank you for blowing your whole argument out of the water. Yes that's what those numbers with the two asterisks around them are: Their estimates. As I accurately pointed out the vote totals from those caucuses has not been released and until they are estimates are not results they are estimates (as an Obama supporter Im sure you know the difference).<BR/><BR/> Given that they are caucuses and not actual primaries where the number of people who participate is in the tens of thousands not millions or even hundreds of thousands, the actual figures whenever they are released are not going to change the main point and they are not going to substantially change the final figures. Clinton is going to finish with the popular vote lead.<BR/><BR/>you sound very worried for someone who says the actual vote total doesnt matter. Because it does matter. And if you think those caucus votes are that important then it must be because you acknowledge that the popular vote winner is really the choice of the majority of the people.And thats because it is.<BR/><BR/>If super delegates vote that way Obama will be going home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-5037507360749997912008-05-21T13:50:00.000-07:002008-05-21T13:50:00.000-07:00Your ad hominem attacks do nothing to bolster your...Your ad hominem attacks do nothing to bolster your argument, and actually make what you say less credible. But I guess I'm unintelligent so I could be wrong.<BR/><BR/>Real Clear Politics has perfectly reasonable estimates of the popular vote in those four states. Just because you ignore them doesn't mean those states didn't vote. So it IS very dishonest to say something like "Clinton wins the popular vote" without listing caveats like (discounting four states that Obama won) to that argument. You know, like RCP does.<BR/><BR/>"Obama cant win. NO Hillary supporter will vote for him. Mr. Unity who said he knew how to bring people together has been the most polarizing force in the history of Democratic poltics. Half the party will not vote for him. half the party cant stand him.Period. Its just a fact."<BR/><BR/>Hahaha. Really? Not a single Hillary supporter will vote for him? They will all just abandon the democrats for 4 more years of McBush, Iraq war, loss of civil liberties... because the candidate they wanted lost the primary? And I love the argument that she is more electable than Obama when she is ... uh ... losing to Obama.<BR/><BR/>Oh and you might want to be more selective with what you call "facts"... "Obama holds a double-digit lead over Clinton for a fourth consecutive day in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, 53% to 42%" and he's been ahead of her since the beginning of the month. --Gallup.com<BR/><BR/>I think the real issue here, is YOU can't stand him. That's fine, you are allowed to make your own judgments of him, based on whatever metric you choose. Makes me wonder how you can hate so deeply someone I find inspiring. Apparently you think it's because I am an idiot, and you have it all figured out and, judging by the content of this blog, know all of Obama's and his supporters' thinking, motivations and personal ethics.<BR/><BR/>But that's your call. And if you really think John McCain would be a better president than Obama that's your prerogative. But can we please not distort the facts?<BR/><BR/>Obama has run an excellent campaign, built an enormous grassroots movement and taken on a candidate named Clinton, former first lady, party favorite, media darling, and "inevitable" nominee. He played by the rules everyone agreed to and (has nearly) won by those rules.<BR/><BR/>You can hardly be surprised that when you try to change the rules and the metrics so that it looks like Clinton wins, Obama supporters call it unfair.<BR/><BR/>But hey, let it all play out. I'm not one to push Clinton out of the race. We'll soon have a nominee. I think its pretty obvious who it should and will be, but then again, I suppose that's just me being unintelligent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-69937818611212023872008-05-21T12:42:00.000-07:002008-05-21T12:42:00.000-07:00"Wow. Get over yourself. I'm so sick of the "Obama..."Wow. Get over yourself. I'm so sick of the "Obama voters are all mindless sheep" B.S."<BR/><BR/>Then send me someone intelligent so I can see for myself.<BR/><BR/>"the numbers ARE from realclearpolitics but yes they dont include ALL the final numbers from those moronic caucuses"<BR/><BR/>"So you admit its a dishonest number you provided?"<BR/><BR/>Only truth challenged Obama followers would try to claim that the fact that the final caucus numbers havent even been released by the states and are not available would be "dishonest".<BR/><BR/>These are the real clear politics numbers including Florida and Michgian. RCP gives NO votes to Obama which distorts her lead. I gave Obama 149,000 votes and added it to the RCP total vote count including Fla and Mich. If you have a problem with their vote totals tell them not me.Maybe they are being "dishonest."<BR/><BR/>the bottom line is that after Puerto Rico her popular vote total is going to beat him by a few hundred thousand votes. Super delegates have an obligation to choose the will of the people AND the candidate who can win. Obama cant win. NO Hillary supporter will vote for him. Mr. Unity who said he knew how to bring people together has been the most polarizing force in the history of Democratic poltics. Half the party will not vote for him. half the party cant stand him.Period. Its just a fact. Its either Hillary or if its Obama the Dems lose again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-2639739604965381482008-05-21T12:29:00.000-07:002008-05-21T12:29:00.000-07:00"Please she started the campaign with every possib..."Please she started the campaign with every possible advantage and then lost due to nothing but her own inept management"<BR/><BR/>First she hasnt lost. In the Obama world where reality doesnt count, baseball games end in the 8th inning and Obama would no sooner disown Wright then his own grandmother, she has lost. she has lost when he gets the delegates that gives him the nomination, not before.<BR/><BR/>As for her inept campaign managment you could not be more right about that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-65167876298387242282008-05-21T12:05:00.000-07:002008-05-21T12:05:00.000-07:00Please she started the campaign with every possibl...Please she started the campaign with every possible advantage and then lost due to nothing but her own inept management and hubris. If she wants to keep campaigning, thats her right, but to pretend she was somehow cheated or robbed is just a distortion and a lie. She knew the primary rules as well as anyone, agreed to them, and lost.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-38671308364777831482008-05-21T12:00:00.000-07:002008-05-21T12:00:00.000-07:00Wow. Get over yourself. I'm so sick of the "Obam...Wow. Get over yourself. I'm so sick of the "Obama voters are all mindless sheep" B.S.<BR/><BR/>"the numbers ARE from realclearpolitics but yes they dont include ALL the final numbers from those moronic caucuses"<BR/><BR/>So you admit its a dishonest number you provided?<BR/><BR/>"Leave it to an Obama supporter to think that who gets the most votes doesnt count"<BR/><BR/>Way to contradict yourself. If you count those caucuses, OBAMA HAS, and WILL HAVE MORE VOTES. Just because a state chooses a caucus doesn't mean their vote isn't worth counting.<BR/><BR/>And sorry, hypothetical GE matchups don't hold much weight when we're bogged down in a democratic primary in which both sides seem to hate eachother. The map is shifting constantly from week to week.<BR/><BR/>Don't you think YOU are a little desperate? Obama has a majority of pleged delegates and is ~60 away from locking up the nomination. So you twist the rules, throw out caucus states, count elections that everyone agreed would not count and make these convoluted arguments that make it look like Hillary is winning.<BR/><BR/>Fortunately for Obama, most people, especially the superdelegates, understand the real math.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-27322840295811629462008-05-21T10:51:00.000-07:002008-05-21T10:51:00.000-07:00"You insult our intelligence."That is not hard to ..."You insult our intelligence."<BR/><BR/>That is not hard to do even when I try not to, given what I have to work with from Obama supporters.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-88137767392608630632008-05-21T10:46:00.000-07:002008-05-21T10:46:00.000-07:00"WTF.By any rational metric (i.e. EVERY OTHER popu..."WTF.<BR/><BR/>By any rational metric (i.e. EVERY OTHER popular vote estimate--even including FL and MI - awarding Obama a portion of the uncommitted vote) Obama is leading...<BR/><BR/>That is--if the popular vote even mattered"<BR/><BR/>Another reply from one of those more highly educated Obama supporters. the numbers ARE from realclearpolitics but yes they dont include ALL the final numbers from those moronic caucuses left over from 1850 where 11,000 people show up to vote who can afford to stand there and argue with someone from 8pm to midnight in a state the Democrats havent won in 40 years. That is real electoral strength. When all the votes from those caucuses finally come in ( they havent been released yet) the final number is going to change by a number in the tens of thousands, (maybe). Its not going to change the fact that when ALL the votes are counted more people in the Democratic party will have voted for HER to be the Democratic nominee than voted for Obama. Leave it to an Obama supporter to think that who gets the most votes doesnt count. <BR/><BR/>Dont you think you are a little desperate? Go to www.electoral-vote.com and tell me about the metrics and match ups where McCain slaughters Obama in the electoral college and Clinton beats McCain easily.<BR/><BR/>I know.The electoral college doesnt count either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-81975147803123410232008-05-21T10:45:00.000-07:002008-05-21T10:45:00.000-07:00"WTF.By any rational metric (i.e. EVERY OTHER popu..."WTF.<BR/><BR/>By any rational metric (i.e. EVERY OTHER popular vote estimate--even including FL and MI - awarding Obama a portion of the uncommitted vote) Obama is leading...<BR/><BR/>That is--if the popular vote even mattered"<BR/><BR/>Another reply from one of those more highly educated Obama supporters. the numbers ARE from realclearpolitics but yes they dont include ALL the final numbers from those moronic caucuses left over from 1850 where 11,000 people show up to vote who can afford to stand there and argue with someone from 8pm to midnight in a state the Democrats havent won in 40 years. That is real electoral strength. When all the votes from those caucuses finally come in ( they havent been released yet) the final number is going to change by a number in the tens of thousands, (maybe). Its not going to change the fact that when ALL the votes are counted more people in the Democratic party will have voted for HER to be the Democratic nominee than voted for Obama. Leave it to an Obama supporter to think that who gets the most votes doesnt count. <BR/><BR/>Dont you think you are a little desperate? Go to www.electoral-vote.com and tell me about the metrics and match ups where McCain slaughters Obama in the electoral college and Clinton beats McCain easily.<BR/><BR/>I know.The electoral college doesnt count either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-11548735861231258742008-05-21T10:27:00.000-07:002008-05-21T10:27:00.000-07:00Bullshit. You wanna cite where and how you get tho...Bullshit. You wanna cite where and how you get those popular vote numbers, bub? Check realclearpolitics.com.<BR/><BR/>Clinton is only leading in the popular vote if you don't count the caucuses in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington. You claim to worry about disenfranchising the voters in the illegitimate contests in FL and MI and then you want to toss out FOUR other states who held LEGITIMATE elections?<BR/><BR/>WTF.<BR/><BR/>By any rational metric (i.e. EVERY OTHER popular vote estimate--even including FL and MI - awarding Obama a portion of the uncommitted vote) Obama is leading...<BR/><BR/>That is--if the popular vote even mattered! This is a race about _delegates_. Unlike the general election, there is no valid "popular vote" in this primary because every state does their elections differently.<BR/><BR/>You insult our intelligence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-26126252814578295302008-05-21T08:57:00.000-07:002008-05-21T08:57:00.000-07:00And if Nancy's edict were truly followed, the supe...And if Nancy's edict were truly followed, the superdelegate count would be far different, too. Clinton would be very close, if not ahead. But it seems that what Nancy really meant was that they should only follow the will of the people if they were for Obama. If the will of the people in a superdelegate's state was for Clinton, then it is ok to take an exception, and pledge for Obama anyway.<BR/>Just do a count as to what the superdelegate pledge numbers would be if each and every one followed the will of the people in their own states! <BR/>And remember, that's all they are... pledges. Subject to change without notice. In fact, obligated to change, if the situation changes. Otherwise, why have them?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3820377390281203107.post-75839786435176361312008-05-21T08:41:00.000-07:002008-05-21T08:41:00.000-07:00Excellent Analysis.Excellent Analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com